The poll data, released by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Ipsos on Thursday, shows how bipartisan views on the conflict have shifted along partisan lines, a change that has accelerated since October 7. However, a growing majority of Republicans continue to favor Israel.
Independent voters, whom political parties aspire to in election years, are also increasingly divided.
Poll data shows a marked shift in attitudes between 2023, when the poll was conducted in September, and data from 2024, conducted February 16-18 (use the poll, which was conducted using a randomly sampled online research panel , a weighted measure at the national level). The sample of 1,039 adults has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, which is higher among partisan subgroups).
Since the Chicago Council has been asking these questions in polls for more than two decades, it is possible that we will see a more gradual change in American views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In 2002, nearly three-quarters of Americans (71 percent) said the United States should not take sides. That number dropped to 56 percent last month, according to the new data.
All of this is keenly felt by the Biden administration. President Biden faced strong backlash during this week's Democratic primary in Michigan, a state with a large Arab-American population and where the campaign called on primary voters to vote “non-committal” in protest of Biden's support for Israel and his refusal to call a ceasefire. Fire in Gaza.
Biden still won the primary by a landslide, but nearly 13.2% of the votes were returned as “nonconformists” — more than 100,000 in total, much higher than in previous primaries and higher than the campaign’s stated goal of 10,000. Michigan is considered a swing state and is likely to be a battleground for Biden's presidential campaign against former President Donald Trump in November.
Electoral pressure on Biden could produce some foreign policy results. On the eve of the Michigan primary, Biden said he hoped an agreement could be reached between Israel and Hamas next week. As my colleague Yasmine Aboutaleb has reported, the White House hopes that a temporary pause in fighting will “lay the groundwork” for a more sustainable ceasefire by making it difficult for Israel to resume conflict on the same scale.
Biden went further later in the day during an appearance on the talk show “Late Night with Seth Meyers,” saying: “There was an agreement by the Israelis that they would not participate in any activities during Ramadan…all the hostages will be out.” He also renewed his criticism of the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “If [Israel] “If they continue with this incredibly conservative government they have, they will lose support from around the world,” he said.
Biden's comments about the pause were not confirmed by representatives of Hamas or Israel. In a statement issued on Tuesday, Netanyahu said he “faces international pressure to end the war early and rally support for Israel” and backed away from Biden's statement of support by pointing to a second poll conducted by Harvard University and Harris, which indicates that a large majority of Americans support Israel in Confronting Hamas, a terrorist group designated by the United States.
Netanyahu's comment reflects some complexity for Democrats, who have supporters sympathetic to Israel and the Palestinians. But there is more bad news for Netanyahu. While the poll conducted by the Chicago Council and Ipsos generally paints a picture of support for Israel among Americans, especially Republicans, there are indications that support is not deep.
It turns out that half of Americans agree that the American security relationship with Israel enhances American national security, which is much lower than other allies such as Germany and Ukraine, and seven points higher than Saudi Arabia. 43% of Americans believed that the American security relationship with Israel weakened American national security. In both cases, there were significant partisan divisions.
When it comes to US military aid to Israel, more than half (53%) of Americans agreed that there should be restrictions on aid so that it “cannot use that aid in military operations against the Palestinians.” 40% of Republicans supported this option, compared to 64% of Democrats and 52% of independents.
Other polls have found similar concerns. A January poll by The Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs found that half of Americans feel the Israeli military campaign in Gaza has gone too far, while a majority (37%) believe the Biden administration has been too supportive of the Israelis. .
It is difficult to know whether the war will lead to a long-term shift in American public opinion about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But for now, American public opinion appears to have approached the decline seen in other countries, as evidenced by the isolation experienced by Israel – and by proxy the United States – during the votes calling for a truce at the United Nations.
