The basin extends from the eastern Arabian Sea to southwestern Madhya Pradesh, and crosses the northeastern Arabian Sea and southern Gujarat at low tropospheric levels. Due to its impact, scattered light to moderate rains accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds up to 30-40 kmph are very likely to occur over south Madhya Pradesh, south Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Vidarbha, Jharkhand and west Gangetic. Bengal on February 27. Hail storm activity is also possible at isolated places over south Madhya Pradesh and south Chhattisgarh.
A westerly disturbance, trough-shaped in the middle tropospheric westerlies, extending roughly along Long. 55°E north of Lat. 29°N. It may cause scattered light rain/snowfall over the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains on February 27. Another active Western Disturbance could affect the region from February 29 and the adjacent plains from March 1-4, resulting in fairly widespread light exposure. To moderate rains accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning over Punjab and Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi from March 1 to 2, and isolated to scattered light to moderate rains over Uttar Pradesh in Rajasthan from March 1 to 2. There is also likely to be hailstorm activity at isolated places over Uttarakhand on March 1.
Moreover, a cyclonic circulation is located over eastern Assam and the adjoining region in lower tropospheric levels. Under its influence, scattered light to moderate rain/snowfall is possible over Arunachal Pradesh during the next 6-7 days. Light to moderate rain is expected in the states of Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on February 28.
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