sPicture the scene: The main center-left party returns to power after more than a decade of right-wing dominance. In his mid-sixties, a naturally cautious technocrat suddenly finds himself leading a country that appears to have lost its way. The economy is faltering, growth is weak, and public investment is urgently needed. However, he is sticking hard to fiscal discipline, easing key policies – including those related to the climate crisis – to meet strict spending rules. More than two years into his term, the government remains adrift, with a widespread feeling that it lacks any vision for the future. To fill this void, the far right has resurfaced, and immigration dominates national politics. The center-left is declining at the polls and heading towards defeat in the next elections.
This is not a vision of the future for Keir Starmer and his Labor Party, but a description of the present in Germany. There, in 2021, Olaf Scholz unexpectedly led his center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) to the top of government for the first time since Gerhard Schröder lost to Angela Merkel in 2005. Having won power largely promising continuity, it seems unlikely It seems so. To know what to do with it. He struggled to articulate a vision for his country, beset by a commitment to fiscal discipline. With few major party achievements, the SPD is third in opinion polls behind the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party whose politicians were recently caught publicly discussing a plan to deport up to two million German immigrants to Africa.
We fear that the similarities between Labor and the Social Democrats will continue after the UK general election, which seems almost certain to bring Starmer to power. The Labor Party was relentlessly cautious, abandoning any policy it believed might threaten its progress. Its ambitious £28bn plan to invest in the green transition is the latest in a series of bold policies that have reached a dead end. His statement appears poised to deliver incremental changes, at best, in a country that desperately needs fundamental reform of its policies and governance.
The problem, as Schulz discovered, is that modern voters are often fickle and impatient. Promises of more efficient administration can win an electoral war, but they are not enough for a post-election peace presidency. The resulting disconnect between the government's limited ambitions and the country's need for change frustrates voters. Opinion polls show that the British people are deeply dissatisfied with the state of their country. They realize that public services are underfunded, that local councils are in crisis, and that government institutions are not fit for purpose. With confidence in politics and politicians at historic lows, they, like German voters, may be quick to turn against a government that seems unable to face today's challenges. The main risk is that the subsequent discontent will be exploited by the far right, as was done by the AfD. In the UK, this could come from a renewed right-led Conservative party, or a revitalized Reform party.
Labour's strategy may be the easiest path to victory, but it complicates what happens next. Some hope that Starmer will be able to shift after the election from a wise manager to an ambitious reformist. However, Schultz's problems show how difficult this is to achieve. With no electoral mandate for bold change, those pushing for change within the party You can find it difficult to win an argument. After their election victory, caution advocates gained the upper hand. The prevailing narrative becomes, “We won the election because we did not promise bold change, and shifting now would threaten that position.”
Despite evidence to the contrary, center-left politicians seem convinced that centrism and incrementalism are necessary to win elections. On issues such as fiscal policy and social welfare, Labor and other European center-left parties have tried to overcome center-right parties in their home country. As a result, voters shifted their positions to the right as well. “Housewives of Swabia,” “over-maxed credit cards” and “hackers” have become prominent ways of thinking about these political areas. The dominance of these center-right discourses limits the transformative power of the left.
The centre-left, not just in the UK but across Europe, is at a crossroads. There seems to be no intellectual vision for progressive governance in the 21st century. How can an underfunded public sphere be revived in an economy struggling to grow? How can social democracy be achieved in a society suffering from an aging population, where a significant amount of spending must be directed towards the elderly? How can we address fundamental wealth inequalities, which intersect with intergenerational equity and lack of adequate housing? What does a socially and environmentally just transition to a green economy look like? Neither Starmer and Labour, nor Schulz and the SPD, have attempted to provide a comprehensive answer to these questions. There is still time for the former to learn from the mistakes of the latter. Otherwise, Starmer may emulate not only Schulz's electoral success, but his subsequent failure as well.
