Donald Trump is expected to win the Republican presidential primary in South Carolina on Saturday over challenger Nikki Haley, keeping him on track to become his party's 2024 nominee.
The Associated Press called the race in favor of the former president as polls closed statewide at 7 p.m. ET. With an estimated 33% of the votes reported, Trump received 59% of the vote to Haley's 40%, according to AP data.
While Haley is a former governor of South Carolina, Trump was widely expected to win her home state, given his 23-point lead in state-focused polls, according to the RealClearPolitics moving average of polls through Friday.
Haley is likely to face more pressure to withdraw from the 2024 GOP race, but she said Tuesday that she will remain in the running at least until after the Super Tuesday primary on March 5. candidates, saying there is still a chance to regain people's trust, so she will “fight as long as that chance exists.”
There are expectations among political analysts that it will do what it promised and will not withdraw in the near future.
Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor, said Haley “seems likely to stay in the race regardless of the outcome in South Carolina” because she wants to remain the main Republican alternative to Trump in 2024 or perhaps become the GOP's front-runner in 2028. At the University of Mary Washington, Virginia, before Trump won the Palmetto State.
Farnsworth told MarketWatch that Trump, 77, could face a health crisis or a conviction in one of his ongoing criminal cases, so Republicans “may have doubts about his candidacy” and favor an alternative this year. Regarding 2028, expert Mary Washington noted that the GOP has a “history of shifting to second-place finishers,” such as when the party chose George H.W. Bush in 1988, John McCain in 2008, and Mitt Romney in 2012.
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Jeff Gulati, a professor of political science at Bentley University in Massachusetts, believes that Haley (52 years old) also expects a sudden setback for Trump or is looking forward to 2028.
“One of the advantages of moving from one state to another, even if you're losing by a large margin, is that you're building an organization, and that … gives them a head start for 2028,” Gulati said.
“And Trump is 77 years old. He's got quite a few legal problems right now, so I think there's also hope that maybe something will happen that will force him to drop out, and then she'll be the only one there.
To be sure, Haley still looks like a longshot to win the 2024 GOP nomination, and many analysts have already moved on to preparing for a rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden in November's general election.
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Betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics have put Haley's chances of becoming the GOP nominee at only about 6% in recent days.
Gulati said a 6% chance might be “about right,” because “it's really about Donald Trump withdrawing from the race, whether voluntarily or by force.”
On the other hand, Farnsworth said 6% sounds optimistic, and 1% may be more accurate.
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