Warmth is expected to push northward before a strong low pressure system sweeps across the country. As it pulls warm, moist air northward, it should also generate fuel for possible severe thunderstorms in parts of the Midwest and South on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The expected mild weather could help end the warmest climate winter (defined as December through February) on record in the Lower 48 and leave many people wondering where the season went.
As a taste of what's to come, temperatures rose to 94 degrees in the village of Rio Grande, Texas, near the border with Mexico, on Wednesday. Widespread highs in the 1980s spread north into Oklahoma.
Among other records in the region, the temperature reached 83 degrees in Amarillo, Texas, and Oklahoma City.
The warmth and lack of winter storms since last weekend have made it happen again The extent of low snow cover was average in the lower 48 Record decline in Great Lakes ice continues.
The round of spring weather expected early next week will swell over a much larger area, bringing highs into the 80s and 90s again in the south-central United States while the 60s spread as far north as Minneapolis and Green Bay, Wisconsin.
By the time this warm spell ends later next week, most places east of the Rocky Mountains and north of the Gulf Coast will likely have achieved or set records for warm weather.
Hundreds of records in decline
An exceptional number of warm weather records are expected during the calendar days early next week.
Nighttime temperatures are likely to be particularly mild. Hundreds of warm overnight lows are at risk between Monday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, lows will drop to only around 60 degrees in St. Louis and around 50 degrees in Chicago. This is much warmer than the afternoon highs.
By Wednesday, most of the mid-Atlantic region will have lows in the 50s, also warmer than their usual afternoon highs.
Afternoon highs will also be abnormally warm and set records in many places. About 50 record levels could be recorded on Monday and Tuesday. On Monday, several records are expected to be set in the Plains and Midwest before moving into the region from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Tuesday.
Temperatures on Monday are expected to rise into the low and mid-90s in South Texas, above 80 in Kansas, and into the 60s in North Dakota and Minnesota.
Highs on Tuesday could rise to near 70 in the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley. By Wednesday, warmer weather should move into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Here are several locations that could hit record highs between Monday and Wednesday:
- Dallas: 90 degrees Monday (27 degrees above normal).
- Little Rock: 80 degrees Tuesday (22 degrees above normal).
- St. Louis: 79 degrees Tuesday (29 degrees above normal).
- Des Moines: 72 degrees Monday (32 degrees above normal).
- Washington Dulles International Airport: 70 degrees Wednesday (21 degrees above normal).
- Toledo: 66 degrees Tuesday (22 degrees above normal).
- Rochester, New York: 63 degrees Wednesday (25 degrees above normal).
In most affected areas, high temperatures will be at least 20 to 25 degrees above normal for a day or two. Some areas in the Midwest and Northeast will likely see highs 30 to 40 degrees above normal.
A tame end to a toothless climate winter
Except for a brief cold snap or two, winter has been largely absent in most of the eastern two-thirds of the Lower 48 and especially in the Great Lakes region.
The average temperature from Fargo, Indiana, to International Falls, Minnesota, is about 12 to 15 degrees above normal in what will become the warmest winter on record in that region. There are dozens of locations from the upper Midwest to the Northeast that will clinch a warmer winter.
After a December that featured only a whiff of cold air, mid-January produced a flurry of cold weather records. However, there was a spell of milder weather late in the month, setting hundreds of warmer weather records.
The weather pattern in February somewhat mimicked that of December, as the cold air went dormant once again. So far this month, not counting warm weather records in the pipeline, there have been 1,800 warm records, compared to just 129 cold records.
Since December, the number of warm records has been about 7,600 compared to 2,300 cold records. In a stable climate, these numbers would be more equal.
Human-caused climate change and a strong El Niño weather pattern are driving an exceptionally warm winter season.
The weather pattern is likely to shift to a colder one by mid-March due to the expected disruption of the polar vortex. However, scientists are not sure how this happens.
Jason Samino contributed to this report.
