It's looking more and more likely that Milwaukee (and the rest of Wisconsin) will experience its warmest winter on record.
February began as the warmest month in Milwaukee, with three daily high temperature records of 49 degrees on February 1, 59 on February 8, and 54 on February 9. High temperatures have been above average every day this month in Milwaukee, except for last Friday and Saturday (which saw highs of 30 degrees), according to data from the State Bureau of Climatology.
Normal temperatures for the end of February in Milwaukee are in the mid 30s. Temperatures have been 8 to 15 degrees above normal most days this month, said Jacqueline Anderson, a local meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
Expectations do not indicate that things will calm down any time soon. The rest of the month is expected to see temperatures at or above normal, with at least one day in the 60s possible, Anderson said.
Currently, Milwaukee's warmest February occurred in 2017, when temperatures averaged 35.5 degrees. Taking into account the temperatures we've already seen in February and those expected for the rest of the month, the average will be about 36.5 degrees, likely setting the all-time record by one degree, Anderson said.
“Milwaukee is expected to have its warmest February on record based on where we are now and future projections,” she said. “There would have to be a very significant change, and a very significant cooling-off period, for us not to do that at this point.”
This winter, Wisconsin set the record for warmest December on record at 10.9 degrees above normal on average. And — even with nine days of temperatures well below normal during the mid-month cold snap — this January was among the 10 warmest Januarys on record in the state, at 8.5 degrees above normal, on average.
more:This will almost certainly be the warmest winter on record in Wisconsin's recorded history
Milwaukee weather forecast for the rest of February 2024
Milwaukee is expected to see temperatures at or above normal for the remainder of the month. The National Weather Service said Wednesday and Thursday could see high temperatures reach the mid-50s.
The greatest volatility will occur on Friday and Saturday, when a cold front will likely bring high temperatures closer to normal for this time of year. AccuWeather expects Milwaukee to see a high of 33 degrees on Friday and 37 degrees on Saturday before temperatures return to the low 50s on Sunday.
Next Tuesday could set another record high temperature in Milwaukee, “with temperatures rising into the 60s,” Anderson said. She added that the city's current record high of 64 degrees set on February 27 was set in 2000. Tuesday is also likely to see rain, and a slight chance of thunder is expected.
With low temperatures expected to drop just below freezing but highs in the 40s, next Wednesday could see a mix of rain and snow, Anderson said.
Why was this the warmest winter in Wisconsin's history?
The main reason behind Wisconsin's unusually warm winter is a weather phenomenon known as El Niño.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above average for several months. During El Niño, the polar jet stream shifts northward, limiting the intrusion of cold air from the north, the NWS explains.
In general, El Niño brings above-average temperatures to the northern United States, often resulting in below-average snowfall in moderate to strong El Niño years.
Last year, the Milwaukee-area NWS said this winter's El Niño was on track to be one of the strongest storms on record.
According to the National Weather Service, during the past seven winters with strong El Niño effects, temperatures across southern Wisconsin have been “close to average to 6 degrees above average.” In addition, snowfall was 18 inches below average in southern Wisconsin during strong El Niño winters.
It is important to remember that El Niño conditions – warmer than average temperatures and below average snowfall – apply to an average winter. Individual days can still see a lot of snow, as Milwaukee saw in early January, or below-normal temperatures, as we saw in the middle of last month.
Can El Niño affect spring weather?
“This mostly only affects the winter, when our jet streams are strongest across the country, because it affects how far south cold air from Canada can intrude into our neck of the woods,” Anderson explained. “Once we head into the spring and summer months, those jet streams are not necessarily as strong over the United States, so that correlation tends to weaken.”
While the Climate Prediction Center expects El Niño to become more neutral in the summer months, it also says there is an “increasing likelihood” of an El Niño effect developing next winter.
La Niña allows more Arctic air to reach the Midwest, and could cause the opposite effects of El Niño — meaning we could see a colder and snowier winter in 2025, Anderson said.
more:From below zero to the 40s, why are temperatures so different in Milwaukee this January?
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