British companies are exporting hundreds of millions of pounds of equipment and machinery that will almost certainly end up in Russia, undermining the official sanctions regime and strengthening Vladimir Putin's war machine, according to analysis of data from Sky News.
The items – which include drone equipment, optical supplies and heavy machinery – are being sent to countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, including Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Uzbekistan and others, where it is understood they will be sent to other countries. Russia.
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The figures show that despite a sharp decline in the flow of goods to Russia, following the imposition of trade sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine two years ago, large quantities of sensitive British “dual-use” goods are still finding their way to Moscow.
The analysis highlights the extent of Britain's involvement in the shadow economy that helps keep the Russian army supplied with parts and equipment for the weapons it is using against Ukraine.
British goods flows to Russia itself have fallen by 74% since the outbreak of war, following the imposition of sanctions. The vast majority of exports still flowing into Russia are food, medical products or other humanitarian items.
Flows of heavy machinery, electrical equipment and cars fell to almost zero.
These figures suggest that the sanctions regime has been incredibly successful, and in fact, a government spokesman said: “We have implemented the toughest package of economic sanctions ever imposed on a major economy.”
However, a closer examination of Britain's official trade statistics provides an alternative perspective.
They show that while UK exports to Russia have fallen sharply, UK exports to a host of former Soviet satellite states – from Uzbekistan to Georgia – have risen at an unprecedented rate.
British exports to Kyrgyzstan, a small state affiliated with the former Soviet Union, have increased by a massive rate of more than 1,100%. These exports are dominated by heavy machinery and vehicles that can no longer be sent directly to Russia.
A European-wide problem
According to Robin Brooks, former chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, this is something that has been happening for some time, with other European countries, most notably Germany and Poland, sending large quantities of devices to Russia via the Caucasus and Central regions. Asian countries.
He added: “It is clear that they are receiving an order from somewhere, a Russian satellite based in one of the Central Asian countries.”
“What happens next? Maybe there is plausible deniability, maybe they know… All we know for sure is that the increase that is happening in export volumes is absolutely insane, and is not consistent with any fundamental data in these countries.”
“So the only plausible explanation is: Russia.
“On the Western European side, and especially on the EU side, I would say this has been happening for a while. It is something that is widely known in Brussels at this point, and I think there is a major question as to why nothing is being done at all.” Central level of the European Union to stop this?
British officials say they are constantly trying to tighten the British sanctions regime. A Sky News spokesperson said: “We also recently announced the establishment of a new Trade Sanctions Enforcement Office to strengthen our sanctions enforcement.
“Any failure to comply with these stringent penalties is a serious offense and is punishable by significant financial penalties or criminal prosecution.”
Exports to other countries neighboring Russia
However, the scale and breadth of the trade is striking. Not only have British export volumes to Kyrgyzstan increased. They also rose almost as sharply to Armenia, which, according to Brooks, recorded a sharp increase in its exports of goods to Russia.
Of doubly worrying is the fact that among the goods being sent to these countries are large quantities of items considered “dual-use” – which can be reused to make weapons.
Remnants of Russian weapons found on the battlefield
The European Union has a list of 45 categories of goods — “high-priority common items” as they call them — that have been found in Russian battlefield weapons remnants.
Sky News analysis shows that British exports to four countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia of these goods – which have been documented as being used to kill Ukrainian citizens – have risen by more than 500% since the outbreak of war.
The analysis shows that the largest category of goods sent to the four Caucasus and Central Asian countries was “parts of aircraft, helicopters or drones” – in other words, equipment that can be used to make drones and other aviation equipment. units.
British companies exported 6 million pounds worth of these goods to the four countries, which is more than what they historically tended to export to them.
Other items sent by UK exporters include data processing machines, air navigation equipment and radio navigation aids.
According to Tom Keating of the Royal United Services Institute: “It's absolutely a red flag if you're producing this kind of equipment…and you've had this big spike in exports to Kyrgyzstan.
“You certainly have to stop and ask yourself: Why is this happening? Am I indirectly providing resources to the Russian military? And you clearly don't want to do that. And in fact, by doing so, you are probably violating sanctions.”
“The tragedy is that when the Ukrainians dissect a drone, a cruise missile, or communications equipment they get their hands on, there are components in those pieces of equipment that come from the European Union, that come from the United Kingdom and that come from the United States.” It has been manufactured since February 2022.
“So these are new exports, not old exports.”
