Texas' cattle herd could be on its way to rebuilding after hitting its lowest levels in a decade, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.
David Anderson, Ph.D., an AgriLife Extension economist in the Department of Agricultural Economics, and Jason Cleary, Ph.D., an AgriLife Extension statewide beef cattle specialist in the Department of Animal Sciences, both in the Texas A&M College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Station, said Brian College. Mother Nature will determine whether Texas' cow herd continues to shrink or rebound. They agreed that rebuilding herd numbers would rely heavily on rainfall and soil moisture to support forage production for grazing until 2024 and winter feeding until spring 2025.
According to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service's January 31 livestock inventory report, the nation's beef herd declined 2 percent since last year to 28.2 million head. The report estimates the lowest number of U.S. cows since 1951, Anderson said.
The Texas cattle herd is the smallest — 4.1 million head — since 2014. The Texas herd began to recover from the 2011-2012 drought after that low point.
From 2010 to 2014, the Texas herd shrank from 5.14 million to 3.9 million, a 24% decline, Anderson said. There were 4.65 million cows in 2019, but these numbers have fallen by 12% since then due to the impact of drought on feed production in successive years.
Declining beef cattle numbers across the state are impacting national markets because Texas holds 14.6% of the U.S. herd. Like a large ship reversing course, Anderson said rebuilding herds takes time.
“High selling prices are an incentive for producers to expand the herd, but many producers have been feeding hay since mid-July, and that has resulted in herds being culled deeper,” Anderson said. “The stage is ready for expansion, but the key is rain and conditions that allow producers to stop replacing calves that represent the future of our herds.”
Calf prices keep pace with producers' optimism
Cleary said the recent rainfall has significantly improved soil moisture indices and water levels in reservoirs across the state.
Soil moisture has fueled optimism among producers and is suspected to have influenced recent rises in calf prices at local livestock markets.
“I think producers are keen to keep replacement heifers, but they are also struggling to keep cows,” Clare said. The rain has provided more optimism. Calf prices have been crazy good over the past couple of weeks.
For example, Anderson said heifer price data compiled from Texas auctions showed prices for 500- to 600-pound heifers rose from $273 to $299 per hundredweight in the past two weeks.
Clare said the jump in calf prices could be related to producers buying calves because they have good grazing available on cool-season forages such as wheat and ryegrass. Recent rains should greatly improve spring forage production in cool-season forage pastures.
Good spring grazing conditions should help producers as calving begins, Cleary said.
The USDA and People's report estimated the U.S. calf crop at 33.6 million head, down 2% from 2022. Texas producers could see a lighter spring calving season due to factors such as heat-related stress over the summer based on several reports of palpitations, Cleary said. Heart around the world. state.
Cleary also shared his concerns about seeing below-average body condition results in pasture-bred cows. Low body condition scores can affect this calf yield but may also affect reproductive recovery times and the ability of cows to carry a calf to term.
Although optimism is high among livestock producers now, Cleary said last year was an example of how quickly conditions can change. There was optimism that the 2022 dry spell was beginning to set in in parts of the state after winter and spring rains, but by May, dry, hot conditions set in and have not abated.
He encouraged producers to find ways to improve good conditions now but stick to plans that protect their operations' long-term ability to hold livestock. Both Cleary and Anderson agree that all market indicators point to higher calf prices as state and national herds rebuild.“The important thing is that as we start calving in the spring, we need to make sure those cattle stay in good physical condition so they can be bred,” he said. “I've seen quite a few lean cows out there, and I know producers are using up their hay supply, but we need to think about the next calf crop now.”
