Now, with just hours to go, the only envoy from Trump country, Senator J.D. Vance (R), was suggesting that the incoming US administration could work with Russian President Vladimir Putin and withdraw from Europe.
The audience seemed surprised and concerned.
With aid to Ukraine halted and the US election approaching, European leaders, officials and diplomats have become increasingly aware of the need to engage former President Donald Trump and his allies in security matters, but they have struggled mightily to do so.
For months, much of Europe has been watching American politics with numb dismay, seeing President Biden's weakness at the polls and fearing a return to the years when Trump threatened the transatlantic relationship that left them prosperous and comfortable under the security cover of the US military.
As the largest European land war since World War II rages, Trump's flirtation with Russia and loose talk of NATO now looks more like a warning than an open invitation to invasion. Europe is worried and angry, but unsure of what to do next.
In Munich, the specter of Trump and Trumpism haunted seminars on the war in Ukraine and European Union policies, dominating behind-the-scenes chatter like never before. The Americans tried to allay fears. A few appear to have been sold. The mood became darker after news of the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in a Siberian prison. The ceremony was attended by his wife, Yulia, and many of his friends.
European officials in Munich said they were paying more attention than ever to accurate poll numbers — not just the matchup between Biden and Trump in swing states, but also sifting through data on the likely outcomes of House and Senate races to try to predict where Congress is headed.
Many of them said that what they see in the presidential race does not give them much hope. One person worriedly asked whether Biden's health was likely to last until November. Another asked about the possibility of holding a contested Democratic convention. Most concerned about the fate of US aid to Ukraine.
Democrats who want to support Ukraine have asked their European colleagues to talk to Republicans. “I would urge you to put a tremendous amount of pressure on every Republican member of the House who is here to give us a vote on aid to Ukraine, and to make clear how important it is,” said Rep. Adam Smith (Washington), D-Wash. Ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee.
Some are trying. A group of European officials and diplomats describes what could be seen as a two-pronged approach to fortifying Trump: trying to promote the existing world order while simultaneously preparing for its possible collapse.
Senior EU diplomats privately say their embassies are working overtime to try to understand what is happening in the United States and what kind of comments or concessions might resonate with the Republican base.
On a recent trip to the United States, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg gave a speech at the Trump-friendly Heritage Foundation and visited the Lockheed Martin facility in Troy, Alabama, to highlight how much allies buy from American arms manufacturers.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna recently traveled to Arkansas to promote his country's purchases of American weapons. He saw the trip as a way to explain what Europe was doing to defend itself and to explain why the United States remained involved in NATO. His goal: “putting facts on the table.”
“We have to be practical,” he added.
In private conversations, European officials and diplomats often raise the idea of promising Americans tougher measures toward China in exchange for support for Ukraine and NATO — though few concrete steps have been taken.
Maybe they'll need to work harder to convince Vance and his teammates.
“Europe’s problem is that it does not provide enough deterrence on its own,” he said Sunday morning in Munich. “I think the American security blanket has allowed European security to atrophy.”
He said that America does not need to withdraw from NATO or abandon Europe, but rather it must “shift” towards Asia. As it does so, Europe must intensify its efforts, he said.
Although some members of Europe's security establishment may agree with this sentiment, few share his assessment of Russia.
“I don’t think Vladimir Putin poses an existential threat to Europe,” Vance said Sunday. To the extent that it does this, he continued, it shows that “Europe must take a more aggressive role in its security.”
The senator told the crowd in Munich that he was open to working with Putin. “The fact that he's a bad guy doesn't mean we can't engage in basic diplomacy and prioritize America's interests,” he said.
These words will do little to reassure Europeans who fear that a second Trump presidency will spell the end of NATO. At a campaign rally this month, Trump said he would “encourage” Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO members who don't spend enough on defense.
A European security official speaking out said: “When the former, and perhaps future, leader of the free world says he will sit back and see how Russia attacks NATO allies, we have to rethink what US commitment to Europe and Ukraine might look like.” On condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations between allies.
“We have to hope for the best but prepare for the worst,” the official said, adding that such a scenario would involve dropping support for Ukraine and allowing Putin to destabilize the region.
In the days after Trump's comments, European officials privately discussed building a continent-wide complement to NATO, which would operate in coordination with American security guarantees, but could also serve as a credible alternative if American guarantees were withdrawn.
For now, these conversations revolve around familiar disputes. France and Germany cannot agree on who will foot the bill. Eastern Europe does not fully trust Western Europe's determination to confront Russian threats. It is not clear how they would build a nuclear shield over the continent, and even if they did, they would not reach the level of Russia's arsenal in the worst case of a nuclear war.
Some wonder whether a Europe that is preparing itself to decouple from the United States can fuel a self-fulfilling prophecy by promoting transatlantic divorce rather than avoiding it.
Some are focusing on how to secure US commitments before the November elections. Senior US policymakers say that realistically, there is little they can do to limit the foreign policy decision-making of future administrations. But some of the structures they are discussing — such as a commitment to provide long-term military assistance to Ukraine — would require status reports and other measures that could make it politically more difficult for Trump to completely back away from U.S. promises.
There is also a feeling that even if Biden wins, things will change.
Hannah Neumann, a German member of the European Parliament, said there is no doubt that the Munich audience favors Biden, but most recognize that the shift in American sentiment is deeper than Trump's and is likely to continue.
She said: “It is clear to everyone: whether it is Trump or Biden, the European Union countries must come together and step up their security game.” “This is homework.”
