In 2014, pro-Russian separatists invaded and briefly captured the city of Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces regained control of the city and fortified it, but the fighting continued. A spike in violence in 2017 created a humanitarian crisis in the city. Today it is largely destroyed. Avdiivka's pre-war population of more than 30,000 has shrunk to about 1,000, the Associated Press reported, citing city officials. Reuters reported that most of the remaining residents live underground.
Avdiivka has strategic and logistical value for Moscow. The Defense Ministry said on Saturday that control of Avdiivka would push the war's front line away from the city of Donetsk, making it more difficult for Ukraine to make attempts to retake the regional capital.
The withdrawal will also boost Russia's morale ahead of the war's second anniversary on February 24, and reinforce concerns about dwindling military supplies and personnel in Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank, said Russia's advance on Avdiivka highlights the importance of air defences. In the final days of its attack, Russia was able to provide “close air support” to its forces on the ground, according to the Institute for War Studies.
Citing Ukrainian military officials and soldiers, the war institute said Russian forces fired large numbers of glide bombs — which have been modified to slide, rather than fall, on targets and are difficult to drop — on parts of the city.
“The Russian ability to conduct these mass strikes for several days in the most active part of the front line suggests that Ukrainian forces were unable to deny them access to the airspace around Avdiivka,” ISW wrote. “It is likely that Russian forces took advantage of this temporary local air superiority to facilitate the capture of a large portion of the settlement.”
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustam Umarov said on Saturday that the loss at Avdiivka showed the need for advanced air defense systems to prevent Russian forces from using guided bombs.
These comments come as Kiev issued stern warnings about the consequences of the allies not supplying Ukraine with sufficient ammunition and weapons. “Keeping Ukraine in an artificial arms deficit…allows Putin to adapt to the intensity of the current war,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday at the Munich Security Conference.
It was not immediately clear as of Sunday whether any Ukrainian forces were still present at Avdiivka or inside the coke and chemical plant that until recently was Ukraine's last stronghold there. Late on Saturday, the Russian Defense Ministry said that measures had been taken to “clear the city of militants and prevent Ukrainian units that left the city and settled” inside the factory.
General Oleksandr Tarnavsky, commander of Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region, said in a statement on Sunday that some Ukrainian soldiers had been captured during the withdrawal, but he did not specify how many. He added that Ukraine will demand humane treatment of its soldiers through humanitarian organizations and other countries.
What did Ukraine and Russia say?
The withdrawal of Ukrainian forces sparked a war of messages between Kiev and Moscow, with Ukrainian officials trying to put a positive spin on the withdrawal and Russian officials quick to frame it as a symbolic victory.
Sersky, the Ukrainian military commander recently appointed to the post, said the withdrawal would allow Kiev to “move to defense on more favorable lines,” and claimed that Ukrainian forces had “inflicted significant losses” on Russian forces during the operation. Tarnavsky said in a statement on Sunday that between October 10, 2023 and February 17, 2024, more than 1,300 Russian tanks, aircraft, artillery systems and armored vehicles were destroyed. The Washington Post was unable to independently verify this claim.
Zelensky said in an interview late on Saturday that the decision to withdraw from Avdiivka was “well balanced” and that it helped save the lives of Ukrainian forces.
Meanwhile, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that President Vladimir Putin congratulated his country's army “on this important victory and success” in Avdiivka. Peskov said that Putin will personally honor Russian Air Force personnel who participated in the operation in Avdiivka.
How did the United States react?
Ukraine's withdrawal from Avdiivka comes as President Biden's proposed nearly $60 billion aid package remains blocked by Republicans in Congress.
In a statement following a phone call between Biden and Zelensky on Saturday, the White House said Ukraine's defeat in the city was “the result of Congress' inaction.”
The White House said that Biden stressed during the call “the need for Congress to urgently pass the National Security Supplemental Funding Bill to resupply Ukrainian forces.”
Alex Horton, Andrew Jeong, John Hudson and Isabelle Khurshudian contributed to this report.
