The fall of Avdiivka gave Russia its most important battlefield victory since its capture of Bakhmut after nine months of brutal war of attrition.
But was a lack of Ukrainian ammunition responsible for this battlefield loss, and is this rare Russian success the beginning of a dangerous new phase of the war?
Avdiivka was the scene of some of the fiercest and bloodiest battles of the war. Russian forces have imposed a siege on the small Ukrainian city during the past four months.
Navalny's wife shares farewell photo – follow the latest
Russian forces have significantly outmatched Ukrainian forces, with some reports suggesting that there are 10 times as many Russian soldiers in front-line areas as there are Ukrainian soldiers.
The Russian air force also played an increasingly prominent role in the battle, taking advantage of the relative proximity to the sanctuary of Russian airspace.
An apartment building is destroyed in Avdiivka, the site of heavy battles with Russian forces in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Tuesday, April 25, 2023. Photo: AP
The delivery of more than 60 bombs a day to Ukrainian front-line positions eventually made the Ukrainian defense of Avdiivka untenable, as Russian forces were slowly encircling the city.
Ukraine It seems that the decision to withdraw from the city located on the front line was militarily justified, but this did not stop President Zelensky President Biden highlighted the arms shortage in Ukraine and the increasingly critical nature of further delays in securing $60 billion in aid that the US Congress is currently delaying.
Although Ukraine would be keen to secure long-term funding support from the United States, Ukraine's urgent need at this time is arms and ammunition.
The European Union has agreed to ongoing financial support for Ukraine, but converting this commitment into available ammunition for front-line soldiers is a challenge.
Over the past two years, the majority of weapons supplied to Ukraine have been obtained from the coffers of Western countries.
Please use Chrome browser for an easily accessible video player
Russian forces raise flags in a Ukrainian city
However, these stocks are now beginning to decline, and there are no ready supplies commercially available.
Activating the defense industrial base on a country-by-country basis to design, build and deliver alternative weapons is one of the only ways to meet Ukraine's future military needs.
The West has succeeded in acquiring some replacement munitions – such as artillery shells – but these tend to be used in a war of attrition that favors greater force, so this is not Ukraine's priority.
In contrast, Ukraine seized the initiative in this war through the West by providing high-tech and precise offensive weapons such as the British Storm Shadow missile.
This weapon has proven very effective in attacking Russian targets in occupied Ukraine, but stocks are running out – and Ukraine wants more.
However, this missile is 30 years old, and many of its components are obsolete, so the industry cannot easily provide replacement stock.
The West can supply Ukraine with more modern weapons from its own stock or directly from manufacturers; However, technology is the West's asymmetric advantage on the battlefield.
There is always a risk that some of the weapons donated by the West will end up on the black market and eventually in the hands of the Russians or the Chinese, and the West cannot afford to jeopardize its national security.
As a result, the only sustainable way to provide Ukraine with permanent military support is through coordinated investment in the international defense industrial base.
However, the investment, development, production and testing process takes a long time, which Ukraine does not have.
A view shows residential buildings severely damaged by permanent Russian military strikes in Avdiivka in November 2023. Image: Reuters
despite of Russia She achieved a rare victory by capturing Avdiivka, and her military forces suffered heavy casualties during the four-month siege of the city.
Read more from Sky News:
Police in Russia suppress protests
Russia “outperforms” Ukraine's allies
The Ukrainian army commander says that the forces have withdrawn from the city on the front line
Offensive work in winter is difficult. The cold weather is unforgiving, natural cover is limited by trees and foliage, and the ground is frozen, making it difficult to dig trenches.
So why was Avdiivka a priority for Russia?
February 24 marks the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine President Putin She would be very eager to show success on the battlefield to boost the morale of her troops.
Putin will also want to show progress in his “special military operation” ahead of Russia's presidential elections scheduled for next month.
Ukrainian soldiers fire a French-made Cesar self-propelled howitzer towards Russian positions near Avdiivka in December 2022. Pic: AP
However, most analysts believe that neither Russia nor Ukraine has sufficient military resources to launch a major offensive any time soon, and that the coming year could be characterized by a series of smaller, inconclusive actions along the front line.
But if the West fails to meet Ukraine's desperate need for munitions, this would create a window of opportunity for Russian forces, one that President Putin might be tempted to exploit.
