- El Niño is developing rapidly and will keep the northern layer hotter.
- Coasts may tend to be cooler than average this summer.
- This summer could be one of the coldest in recent years.
The rapid onset of El Niño could lead to a cooler and wetter summer than last year, especially at the beginning of the warmer months.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average in the central section of the country from June through August with risks for colder weather on the East and West coasts, according to the latest forecasts from The Weather Company, IBM Business and Atmopheric G2.
But the fly in the ointment is forecast to be a cooler start to summer — especially in the Southwest and perhaps the South.
“This summer could be the coolest since 2017,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, deputy chief meteorologist at Atmospheric G2 and author of the forecast.
June forecast
As noted above, the risk of below-average temperatures this summer is highest in June and throughout much of the Southwest. Temperatures could be near average or slightly cooler across much of the southern tier of the country.
Climate models continue to indicate that heat will remain concentrated in central Canada and the northern United States. Since the latest forecast, the potential for higher temperatures expected from Washington State to the Dakotas has increased.
July forecast
The bulk of the heat will spread southward to the plains and four corners in July. This could be a fairly significant warm-up from June in the southern Rockies and Southern Plains.
Parts of the coasts could remain near average or a little cooler, especially in Southern California.
August forecast
The heat will remain where it is and will likely intensify from the Plains into the upper Midwest.
The northeast and west coast can remain near average or a little cooler as summer comes to a close.
Rapid onset of El Niño
After several years of cooling in the Pacific, temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have now risen to the threshold (0.5°C above average) that must be considered for El Niño. In order for an El Niño phenomenon to be officially declared, the anomaly must last for three months, which is almost certain to happen this summer or early fall.
El Niño is a warming of the oceans and the atmosphere's response to that warming, which often causes changes ranging from months to years in temperatures and precipitation around the world.
According to Crawford, this change “will support a continued ridge process across the northwestern United States and southwestern Canada into the summer with cooler outcomes across the eastern United States.”
Years with similar El Niño intensity led to widespread lower temperatures across the Great Lakes region and the East, but Crawford noted, “We are reluctant to shift to very low temperatures given the strong summer warming trends in recent decades.”
Additional changes may be made to the cooler forecast in the summer months.
El Niño-like conditions will likely bring wetter-than-average conditions across the South and East as well, which could keep temperatures from getting too hot.
The Weather Company's primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment, and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
