When US forces launched strikes this month on Iranian-backed groups in Yemen, Syria and Iraq, Tehran publicly warned that its military was ready to respond to any threat. But privately, senior leaders are urging caution, according to Lebanese and Iraqi officials briefed on the talks. They spoke to The Washington Post on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations.
US officials say the letter may have some impact. As of Saturday, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria had not attacked US forces in more than 13 days, an unusual calm since the war in Gaza began in October. The militants ceased fire even after a senior official in the Hezbollah Brigades was killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad.
“Iran may have realized that its interests are not served by allowing its proxies unrestricted ability to attack US and coalition forces,” said a US official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.
The Biden administration has taken a similarly cautious approach with Iran. In launching dozens of strikes on February 2 — in response to a drone strike last month that killed three U.S. service members in Jordan — U.S. forces targeted Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria, but did not strike inside Iran.
Meanwhile, American diplomats are pressuring Israel and Hamas to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza. During the cessation of fighting negotiated in November, attacks by Iranian-backed groups decreased across the region.
To underscore the new directive, Iran sent military commanders and diplomats across the region to meet with local officials and militia members.
An Iraqi official with close ties to Iranian-backed forces there said: “Iran is doing its best to prevent the expansion of the war and escalation from reaching the point of no return.”
Days after Kataib Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the attack that killed three US Army reservists, an Iranian military commander arrived in Baghdad last month to meet with the group's leaders. The commander pressed her to issue a statement commenting on the attacks on American targets.
The Iraqi official said that the leaders were not satisfied with the comment, but they responded to the request of the country that trained and armed their forces.
However, the exchange may also have demonstrated the limits of Tehran's influence: After the US strikes, the group reversed its position, vowing “painful strikes and large-scale attacks.”
It has been a balancing act for Iran since October 7, when a surprise Hamas attack on Israeli communities near Gaza sparked war there.
The Iranian-backed groups make up the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” a loose coalition of armed militias that includes Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq and Syria. Tehran uses it to spread its influence throughout the region and serve as a front line of defense against the United States and Israel.
Although funded and trained by Iran, these groups operate independently and outside of Tehran's official security apparatus. This arrangement allowed them to advance Iranian policy goals while insulating Tehran from direct responsibility—and potential retaliation—for their actions.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian praised the groups during a recent visit to Lebanon and promised continued support. He told reporters in Beirut that Israel seeks to “drown the United States into the quagmire of war in the Middle East.”
But in private, Iranian envoys adopted a more moderate tone. They praised Hezbollah's sacrifices, but warned that war with Israel would risk valuable gains in the region.
Iranian officials met with members of Hezbollah this month in Lebanon. One Hezbollah member summed up Tehran's message: We are not keen on giving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu any reason to launch a broader war in Lebanon or anywhere else.
Iranian officials told Hezbollah leaders that the axis of resistance was winning. The war in Gaza shifted the world's focus back to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and complicated plans by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to normalize relations with Israel.
But officials warned that these gains could be lost if Israel opens another front in Lebanon. The Hezbollah member summed up the message: Netanyahu is backed into a corner now. Don't give him a way out. Let us not give him the benefit of waging a broader war because that will make him a victor.
In Iraq, the message was somewhat different. Iraqi officials said that renewed conflict in Iraq threatens to weaken the momentum behind US military withdrawal talks from the country. Iran has long sought to remove US forces from the region; Tehran will view the withdrawal from Iraq as a major victory.
US officials have expressed openness to withdrawing some forces from Iraq, but privately added that the Iraqi government appears concerned about a complete withdrawal and appears to want continued assistance in confronting the remnants of ISIS.
The Iranian campaign appears to have been effective. While deadly attacks occur almost daily across Israel's border with Lebanon, Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has stopped short of declaring war. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have refrained from launching attacks since February 4, despite the US raid on February 7 that killed a senior Kataib Hezbollah official, Abu Baqir al-Saadi.
Major General Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, said Thursday that US forces reserve the right to self-defense if they are threatened or attacked.
When asked whether militia attacks had ended, he refused to speculate.
“We'll see,” he said. “I don't want to predict the future. We remain focused on the mission we were sent there to do.”
One of the Iranian-backed groups has given no indication of stepping down. The Houthis in Yemen have disrupted global trade by harassing commercial ships through the Red Sea, a key link between Asia, Europe and the Americas, in protest against the Israeli campaign in Gaza.
They have launched at least 48 attacks since November, according to US defense officials, including missile strikes, attack drones and unmanned boats loaded with explosives. The attacks have prompted shipping companies to avoid the area, adding time and money costs.
The Houthis fired two missiles into the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Monday and an anti-ship ballistic missile into the Gulf of Aden on Tuesday. US military officials said an anti-ship ballistic missile fired on Thursday from the Houthi area hit the M/V Lycavitos cargo ship, causing minor damage.
American forces continued their continuous strikes on Houthi targets. Defense officials have described it as self-defense, often against weapons that were prepared to be fired.
The longer the war in Gaza lasts, the more difficult it will be for Iran and the United States to avoid escalation.
“Certainly, I welcome the fact that the attacks appear to have stopped,” said Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie, a retired Marine general who oversaw U.S. operations across the Middle East as head of U.S. Central Command from 2019 to 2022.
He added: “But we know from difficult experience that the deterrence situation in the Middle East is something that must be constantly reconsidered and updated.” “Organizations have a short memory in the Middle East for things like this.”
He wondered whether the United States could have thwarted some attacks if it had responded faster and more forcefully.
Even if Tehran directs its agents to step down, he said, “This does not mean that they control everyone.”
“There will always be someone who doesn't understand the Word.”
