Writing a predictive piece is a humbling thought experiment. My three wild bets for the Year of the tiger It turned out to be wildly inaccurate. especially:
(1) I predicted that China will produce the next hit cryptocurrency game. Instead, the entire gaming sector launched several tokens, rather than games. However, I remain optimistic, mainly because of the abundant talents from China. They just know how to make people addicted to simulator boxes.
(2) I predicted that Chinese tech giants would have great success in the field of NFTs. The mixed reality is that while Chinese tech giants fled the NFT market once the downturn occurred, there has been a steady influx of… Chinese celebrities Launching NFTs as pet projects. some Provincial governments They have also opened their arms to embrace NFTs in order to revitalize the creative industry.
(3) It predicted the emergence of a thousand decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) from the Chinese cryptocurrency community. Instead, we got a thousand airdrop studios to develop deep expertise in anti-Sybil practices and collect points. The few remaining DAOs are still active, but the days when preparing a DAO statement was considered exciting are over.
Forecasts are difficult because we tend to use the most recent and somewhat optimistic data points to predict a volatile market. But that doesn't mean it's any less fun to predict.
So here we go again! Here are my wild predictions for China, cryptocurrencies, and the Year of the Dragon!
1. Chinese societies will invent and promulgate new religious narratives
The most overlooked hidden force in the cryptocurrency space has always been… Chinese aunts. They have single-handedly created terms, narratives, and even price movements on topics unknown to the Western Illuminati of cryptocurrencies.
Did you know that the term “KOL” – meaning key opinion leader – originated in China? It's an indisputably Chinglish phrase, and it only exists because the Chinese can't pronounce the word “influential.”
Last year, Bitcoin Ordinals and Bitcoin Layer-2 surprised most industry participants. Not only are token prices rising, but a new class of builders and funds are starting to pour resources into “making Bitcoin great again.”
“BRC20 and Ordi initially stunned Chinese communities,” he nicknamed 0XWizard, a leading KOL in the Bitcoin ecosystem told me. “The Chinese are more open to new token standards and assets, as long as there is a wealth impact. Forget technology, the Chinese will copy anything that makes them money.
Following the Bitcoin Renaissance was the birth of ERC-404, a semi-fungible but completely unofficial token standard. They both share the same origin – Chinese developers. While many allied people have criticized not supporting such a standard, I see this small step as merely a reflection of Chinese society's desire to degenerate, at the expense of setting a new standard!
But more importantly, this new class of Chinese builders has learned a few things about crafting narratives, whether they be Bitcoin or Ponzi standards. In 2024, I expect we will see more original dejin plays from the Chinese community. Reward Expectation: Some of the mechanisms will be adopted and accepted by the broader cryptocurrency community.
2. Everything goes through the chain, even in China
Yes, we are on the continuum.
Starting with centralized exchanges, the top three exchanges are all building their own Web3 kingdoms: the wallet, the native protocol, and several native decentralized applications.
For example, OKX launched its multi-chain wallet in 2023. It was… First non-custodial portfolio To support Bitcoin ordinal. Exchange too Partnership with Polygon To launch a new second-layer series called X1. Chinese business founders, willy-nilly, are building the infrastructure and guiding existing users into the world of the chain.
Quest platforms are another favorite of Chinese builders. Galg It alone converts more cross-chain transactions than all other websites combined. Many of these tasks are for airdrop farmers, but they also serve the ultimate goal of rewarding users for actually using the blockchain.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Ethereum's development has also benefited from Chinese researchers, especially in China Zero knowledge And Account extraction space. Teams like Scroll And Taiko We are scaling Ethereum together with the Ethereum Foundation. Soul Wallet and Blocto are working on smart contract wallet payments.
3. The escape of the Cryptopeople from the Middle Kingdom
Some things have stuck with me since last year. One day I received a Telegram message from a Chinese cryptocurrency founder/friend. I covered his story again in 2020. He asked me if I could take that story down because he didn't want the Chinese government to identify him. This was urgent because the government was in the middle of it Strict action taken against several cryptocurrency founders And investors.
This founder “wanted to disappear from the Internet.”
We took the piece down. But the question made me very sad because he was one of the first generation of credible cryptocurrency creators who offered a solid DeFi product. Now he has to erase himself in order to continue working in our industry. “Going out of business” may not be a big sacrifice for small business builders, but for those who want their products to touch the lives of a billion people, “going out of business” simply isn't an option.
There are alternative lifestyles too. Singapore attracted an initial wave of cryptocurrency-rich OGs, followed by a small number of construction companies (until… 3AC event). Hong Kong takes over in 2022 as a local government Openly embrace Web3.
Thailand has become a paradise of Eden for young idealists and fans of mint cryptocurrencies. In Dan Wang Newsletter 2023He painted a picture of young crypto-racers engaging in deeply philosophical topics about the nation-state, geopolitics, welfare, and drugs, over delicious $2 meals.
In Dubai, where I live, cryptocurrencies have been on an “only up” trend. Most Chinese stock exchanges have moved their global headquarters to the United Arab Emirates. Native crypto builders are increasingly approaching Dubai as a potential place of residence (yes to 0% tax!).
Compared to the COVID-19 times when living abroad was a forced choice, there are now more crypto natives He chooses To live abroad. It becomes possible a few months here and there as the native crypto friends move around just as much.
I expect 2024 to be the year in which these dispersed Bedouin communities grow larger, more inclusive, and more influential. I hope there will be new permutations of these communities centered around ideology, faith, hobbies, culture and food. Maybe the DAO idea will make a comeback. Perhaps the next successful crypto game will be born from this combination. Maybe it's just the friendship people form along the way.
The ripple effect of having a decentralized Chinese society is that it forces us to be diverse. By actually living in each other's countries, we are blurring the boundaries between East and West.
The more I thought about these bets, the more I realized that these expectations were deeply rooted in my optimism about society. As the cryptocurrency industry moves into an on-chain bull market, Chinese society will also accelerate at this pace. After all, the word for “dragon” in Chinese is the same character (龙) as the word for “long.” Long on the market, but also long in Chinese society!
