The initial ceasefire, which is expected to last for at least six weeks, would buy time to announce the plan, enlist additional support and take initial steps toward implementing it, including forming an interim Palestinian government, according to American and Arab officials. . Planners hope a hostage agreement can be reached before the start of Ramadan, the Islamic month of fasting that begins on March 10, fearing it would exacerbate the deprivation and pressure-cooker atmosphere in Gaza.
“The key is the hostage deal,” said one American official, among several American and Arab diplomats who discussed the issue on condition of anonymity to avoid derailing the plan before it was completed.
But even as those involved in the planning – including Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Palestinian representatives, as well as the United States – work to reach an agreement among themselves, there are new fears that the looming Israeli attack on… Rafah will lead to dire consequences. Pushing the Gaza crisis to its extreme dimensions and burying the hostage deal and long-term peace efforts.
The elephant in the planning room is Israel, and whether its government will acquiesce to much of what is being discussed: the withdrawal of many, if not all, of the settler communities in the West Bank; Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem; and the reconstruction of Gaza; and security and governance arrangements for the West Bank and Gaza Strip together. The hope is that Israel will also receive specific security guarantees and normalization with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries will be difficult to refuse.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given no indication that he is ready to back down from Hamas' demands regarding the hostage deal or his opposition to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
“Everyone who talks about a two-state solution – well, I ask, what do you mean by that?” Netanyahu said Sunday on ABC News' “This Week.” Should Palestinians have an army? …Do they continue to raise their children on terrorism and destruction? Of course I say, of course not.”
He said: “The most important power that must remain in Israel's hands is security control in the area west of the Jordan River.”
The recent trips made by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Arab capitals, and the visits made by the Prime Minister of Qatar and King Abdullah II of Jordan to Washington, focused on what Blinken described, during his stop last week in Doha, as “the essence and sequence of all steps.” . It needs to define “a practical, time-bound and irreversible path to the establishment of a Palestinian state living side by side in peace with Israel.”
“The focus has become sharper than ever,” Blinken said.
The circle of support for a fixed plan extends beyond the small group of people directly working on it. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron expressed public interest in early recognition of Palestinian statehood.
Sven Koopmans, the EU's special representative for the Middle East peace process, said the EU is “engaging…to see how we can work together to develop a larger plan that is actually focused on getting to the end of the conflict.” “It is an actual peace process that wants to reach an independent and fully recognized Palestinian state and a secure Israeli state fully integrated into the region. Is this possible? It is very difficult, but in the absence of any other plan, we are interested in continuing this.”
As the Biden administration faces the upcoming elections, “it may be helpful for others to share the responsibility for helping end the conflict,” Koopmans said.
Participating countries hope to discuss their plans with leaders in Europe and beyond at the annual Munich security conference, which begins on Friday.
US officials said the list of measures under consideration includes early US recognition of Palestinian statehood – even as elements of political reform, security guarantees for both Israel and the Palestinians, normalization and reconstruction are implemented.
“We don’t want to lose the momentum of this moment by doing this in bits and pieces,” said a US official familiar with the talks. The official said there was a desire to know “what it looks like from day one.”
But decades of failed attempts to achieve a two-state solution have made some question US commitment, especially in an election year in which the war between Israel and Gaza and support for Israel have become major political issues.
“The language of ‘peace process’ was with us for 10 years in the 1990s and produced nothing,” said Amr Moussa, who served as Egyptian foreign minister from 1991 to 2001 and secretary-general of the Arab League from 2001 to 2011. “That was just a trick.
“If we want to solve the problem, that day, in concrete terms…there has to be a time frame,” he said.
“My own view is that none of this will matter,” said Khaled Elgindy, director of the Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs Program at the Middle East Institute. “Just talking about the state is a distraction. …It's all smoke and mirrors. Unless they talk about ending the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, “it doesn’t matter.”
Meanwhile, the soldier said, the Biden administration has shown little inclination to stand up to Israel, and instead “just rubs their hands” and says: “We hope you allow more aid and kill fewer civilians.” “It's Groundhog Day.”
Many believe that only the United States' recognition of a Palestinian state at the beginning of the process, even one whose borders and institutions have not yet been finalized, can convince the Arab world that this time will be different. While US officials say recognition of some form is on the list of possibilities, skeptics do not expect it to happen any time soon.
“I would be appalled if they offered legal or de facto recognition of the state of Palestine” as an early part of the Next Day plan, said Aaron David Miller, a former State Department adviser and coordinator of Arab-Israeli and peace negotiations. Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Miller agreed that any pledge to establish a Palestinian state would be useless without concrete steps along a specific timetable. But he questioned whether the current leadership of Israel or the Palestinians is capable of or interested in “any transformative solution.”
“Right now, it's about management,” Miller said. “It's not about transformation. They don't have the right leaders to pull the wagon.” He said Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas are “more interested in keeping their seats.”
Representatives of countries in the planning group say they recognize the difficulties of reaching an agreement on either side, and have divided the work, with the United States negotiating with Israel and the Arabs negotiating with the Palestinians.
“[Americans] “I think they can come here and play with us like building Lego,” said Tawfiq Al-Tirawi, a member of the Central Committee of Fatah, the largest faction in the Palestine Liberation Organization, which in turn forms the basis of governance in the West Bank. Palestinian Authority. “If we want to renew our leadership, that is purely our decision,” he said.
Arab officials insist they are optimistic about bringing Palestinian groups together to form a government of technocrats, rather than politicians, focused on revitalizing the Palestinian economy, improving security control, and rebuilding Gaza, followed by elections. Several Arab officials said Abbas agreed in principle, and may retain his position as head of state in a role similar to that of Israeli President Isaac Herzog.
Participants in the talks put forward their preferred candidates to serve in other senior government positions and discuss whether Hamas's political leadership has any role in post-war Gaza.
An Arab official said that Hamas's political wing should be included in the talks, if not in the future government. “We need someone there to represent them to ensure they are involved in this,” the official said.
“If not, and they are not satisfied with it, we will have Fatah and Hamas again,” the official said, referring to previous confrontations between the two Palestinian groups that eventually led to the election of Hamas as the ruling authority in Gaza. But if they can achieve two years of stability and prosperity under a renewed government, the official said, “no one will choose Hamas” at the ballot box.
Claire Parker contributed to this report.
