A fast-hitting but fairly intense storm system is moving through lower Michigan this morning. The storm is strong enough to surprise you with winter thunder, lightning, and many other types of precipitation.
At 7:00 a.m., the southwest quadrant of lower Michigan is experiencing heavy snow, sleet, and heavy rain. Radar and weather settings tell me that lightning and thunder are possible during noon from I-96/I-69 South. Ann Arbor, Detroit, Jackson, Lansing and Kalamazoo could see a flash thunderstorm. Anywhere on the current radar above you see yellow or orange there may be a thunderstorm and/or snow shower.
The air is also very dry at the surface. This means that as rain begins to fall anywhere across southern and eastern Lower Michigan, a frost could occur. Bursts of freezing rain are also known to come with thunder and lightning. The same intense precipitation process that causes thunderstorms can also produce rainfall.
Rain/snow line as forecast yesterday. At 7 a.m. it's snowing in Grand Rapids and raining in Kalamazoo. The rain/snow line is about halfway between Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo. This same location should continue over southwest Lower Michigan into southeast Lower Michigan during the next two hours.
Related: Storm warnings have been issued for the Great Lakes, with waves reaching up to 16 feet
Rain will begin to fall in Ann Arbor, Detroit, Flint, Saginaw and Bay City before 9 a.m. In the Saginaw and Flint area, it should be snowing, possibly mixed with sleet around Flint. In Ann Arbor, Detroit and Jackson there could be snow, sleet, sleet or rain, along with thunder. In a few hours everything will change to rain in the south.
Light snow is falling in northern lower Michigan now and light to moderate snow will fall during the early afternoon before lake effect snow develops.
Here's the radar forecast only through 1 p.m. You can see how quickly the rain falls and then moves out. Any area will experience a couple of hours of heavy rainfall and then a few hours of light rainfall before ending abruptly.
Modeling suggests that even southeastern lower Michigan may have a period of snow before the precipitation ends. At that time of day the temperature should be 35 degrees or warmer and no buildup will occur. This is for Ann Arbor, Detroit, Jackson and far southeastern Lower Michigan.
Here's the latest snowfall forecast. There is still 4 to 6 inches of snowfall in the northern half of lower Michigan. Big change is happening in the Saginaw Valley area. Dry air will likely reduce snow amounts from the original forecast of 3-5 to 2-4 inches now, with 2-3 inches being the most common.
Grand Rapids and Muskegon could have another inch or two this morning before it ends at noon. Mount Pleasant, Midland and Clare could get another 2-3 inches. Saginaw, Bay City and the Thumb are best looking for just 2-3 inches of snow totals. Traverse City and all of the Lower North are still expecting 3 to 6 inches of snow by midnight, some of which is lake effect snow. The UP should have 3 to 6 inches of snow overall.
Flint is in the area of everything falling from the sky. You could have an inch or two of snow, perhaps heavy snowfall and even a light glaze of sleet.
Ann Arbor, Detroit, Jackson, Lansing and Kalamazoo will only get an inch in a quick transition to sleet and snow late this morning.
How to stay safe today:
If you have to travel today and can wait an hour after the rain stops in your location, you should be in pretty good shape to drive. Temperatures will rise above freezing immediately after the rain ends. Temperatures for many of us will be between 36 and 37 degrees this afternoon. Any treated, plowed major highway will quickly become wet.
