Even if Prabowo and Gebran fail to reach the necessary thresholds, most analysts believe that they will succeed in attracting enough supporters from the first defeated candidate to win in the second round.
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But the clear victory of the Prabowo/Gebran list, which defied the expectations of many analysts and pre-election polls by its margin, removes the nuisance that had been rumored about Anies and Baswedan's cooperation and saves the elderly soldier from months of additional campaigning.
Prabowo lost presidential elections to Joko, known as Jokowi, in 2014 and 2019 as a controversial nationalist and disaffected Islamist, respectively. This campaign, which was a more friendly affair, saw him and his army of doctors succeed in rebranding him as a friendly grandfather figure who dances and loves animals.
It is worth noting that Prabowo promised in the campaign to continue the political legacy of Jokowi, who is constitutionally barred from running for a third term and will leave the palace in October. The rapprochement, which began with Jokowi's appointment of his former rival as defense minister in 2019, has facilitated Prabowo's political rehabilitation.
The soft-spoken Jokowi rose to power from outside the country's ruling elite, ruling with action and pragmatism, endearing him to ordinary Indonesians and boosting economic growth.
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Although he has been widely criticized for weakening key democratic institutions, recent polls have shown that his support after ten years in office is close to 80 percent.
Depending on who is asked, Prabowo's choice of Gibran as his running mate – widely accepted as a way for Jokowi to maintain some form of political influence – is either a symbol of stability or the construction of an unwelcome dynasty.
Satina, a 55-year-old housewife from the poor side of Jakarta's Semprug Golf 2 neighborhood, voted for Prabowo “because of Jokowi.”
“Since Jokowi became president, my son can get educational insurance [a Jokowi policy providing financial relief for school supplies]So I will continue my support.”
Dimas Borno, from the same neighbourhood, went with former Central Java governor Janjar after voting for Jokowi in 2014 and 2019.
“Basically, I don’t want Jokowi to continue,” he said, referring to Gibran’s nomination as vice president. “I am satisfied with Jokowi's performance, but recently, he has been seen as supporting his son.
“Prabow is actually fine, but Gibran is inexperienced. I don't think he's right for this position. It's too early. But Prabowo's past is also a problem for me. Basically, I'm not with them.”
Prabowo's “past” includes allegations of human rights abuses in East Timor and incitement of deadly anti-China riots in 1998, accusations he has long denied. But he was dismissed by the military after the fall of dictator Suharto in 1998 for his role in the kidnapping of democracy activists, twelve of whom are still missing. He says he has no knowledge of their whereabouts or what happened to them.
However, successive US administrations denied him entry, until Jokowi brought him into his tent in 2019 as Indonesia's defense minister.
More than 200 million Indonesians were eligible to vote and presidential and legislative elections were held to install nearly 20,000 politicians across 6,000 inhabited islands.
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