The exchange of fire on Israel's northern border with Lebanon is one of the most dangerous events to date – but the situation remains essentially the same.
Hizb allah Iran's sponsors do not want the militia to escalate the conflict into an all-out war.
Its leaders want to avoid that, too. Israel may be considering a bigger war, but it has not yet decided to do so.
Since the atrocities committed by Hamas on October 7, Hezbollah has been… Israel They were fighting across the border.
Live follow-up: Israel launches a wave of attacks on Lebanon
Hezbollah feels it must show solidarity with the Palestinians Gaza But we cannot be drawn into a repeat of the devastating conflict that occurred in 2006.
She knows that the people of Lebanon will not forgive any escalation that could destroy the country's already devastated economy.
The location of the missile landing after it was launched from Lebanon. Photo: Reuters
Hezbollah was created with Iran's encouragement to “resist” Israeli incursions and occupations, and draws its ranks from Shiites in southern Lebanon. It is part of a crescent of Shiite militias extending west from Iran.
Since 2006, the arsenal of missiles hidden in the hills of southern Lebanon has increased to 150,000 missiles, according to Israel.
It is widely believed that Iran I paid a lot of this to only use it as a last resort.
The arsenal is an insurance policy that is allegedly used only when Israel or the United States strikes Iranian nuclear facilities.
For these reasons, it may take a major escalation to push Hezbollah into all-out war. This is not unlikely.
For example, an accidental Israeli airstrike on a kindergarten in southern Lebanon that killed several children may give Hezbollah leaders no choice but to respond seriously.
It is also possible that there is a deliberate Israeli escalation.
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Israel bombs Hezbollah targets
Since October 7, Israel has been reevaluating its defense strategy, which until now has favored managing the threat facing its enemies rather than eliminating them.
She now prefers the latter option when it comes to Hamas. Some in the Israeli government have called for the same against Hezbollah.
Read more:
Children are among the four people killed in the Israeli raids on Lebanon
Analysis: Does Netanyahu have the courage to launch a military operation in Rafah?
So far, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems unconvinced.
So the unstable status quo, despite its movement, persists. This latest exchange seems unlikely to change the equation.
