Most Rochester area schools start the weekend of February 19, but what weather can students and parents expect?
Sometimes called Presidents' Day or Midwinter Weekend, this week is a welcome break from the winter doldrums. But what will the weather be like on February holidays in Rochester?
Rochester has had a mild winter so far, with warm temperatures and much less snow than a normal year. This trend is likely to continue next week.
Weather in Rochester, New York: February holiday forecast
The AccuWeather forecast expects highs to range from the low 40s on Monday, February 19 to the mid 30s, with no temperatures expected to rise below freezing that week. The forecast also calls for snow showers on the morning of February 20.
National Weather Service forecast models in Buffalo are calling for a slightly colder forecast, with temperatures below normal, and as a result, a chance of lake effect snow. The normal high for February 19 is 36 degrees, with the same measure rising to 37 degrees by the end of the week.
No major precipitation systems are expected, but cold temperatures and favorable wind directions could bring lake-effect snow, said David Thomas, a meteorologist with the weather service. Northwest flow creates the most likely conditions for a lake effect in Rochester.
Forecast reliability improves as you get closer to the date, so the exact weather the February holiday week will look like may change.
According to NOAA, forecasts of 10 days, or longer, are correct only about 50% of the time. Accuracy rises to 80% for seven-day forecasts and even higher, reaching 90% for five-day forecasts.
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– Steve Howe covers weather, climate and lakes for Democracy and the Chronicle and has already been out on his bike this year. Share with him at showe@gannett.com.
