Their efforts are in vain as birth rates continue to decline. But some are hoping for a baby boom, or even a baby boom, next year, as Saturday marks the start of the Lunar New Year and the dawn of the Year of the Dragon.
According to Chinese astrology — a nearly two-thousand-year-old system with lay and ardent believers across Asia and in Chinese communities around the world — the dragon is the most auspicious animal of the zodiac.
As the only mythical creature among the 12 animals of the Chinese zodiac, it is considered divine and powerful. Many believe that children born in the Year of the Dragon are more likely to be successful and lucky throughout their lives.
Under the system, which assigns traits to each animal, some years are less popular, such as the year of the tiger (very ferocious), the goat (very shy) or the snake (seen as manipulative and cunning). The Year of the Golden Pig, which spans decades, has also led to baby booms. Golden pigs are said to enjoy comfort and wealth for life.
But no general is as sought after as the Dragon, which is associated with intelligence, confidence and ambition. Couples choose in vitro fertilization or schedule cesarean sections to ensure their babies are born on time — or even ask doctors to delay the births. Class sizes increase during dragon years, often requiring additional groups.
Even heads of state intervene. On Friday, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong urged citizens to “add a baby dragon” to their families.
The myth is not entirely unfounded. According to a 2019 study using data from China, those born during the Year of the Dragon were more likely to score higher on university entrance exams and obtain a university education. Girls in the study group were also more likely to be taller.
But the reason, the study concluded, has nothing to do with the universe. It was the extra time and money parents spent on these children.
“People think these dragon children are special and they want to have special children, and when they have these children, they invest in them and expect great things from them. This makes them successful, and the cycle continues,” said Nasi Mokan, an economics professor at Louisiana State University and one of the study’s authors. “And that is why this has continued for centuries and generations.”
In China, where the Lunar New Year is considered the most important annual holiday, authorities hope that this ancient belief will lead to a needed increase in births. Hospitals across China are sending out timelines and advice to guide couples on when to conceive a dragon baby.
“Hurry up and take advantage of these few months to scientifically prepare for the birth of a baby,” said a notice issued by Huantai Maternal and Child Healthcare Hospital in Shandong Province.
Zhai Zhenwu, an advisor to the National Health and Family Planning Commission, told China's Times Finance newspaper in January that Chinese citizens' “very clear” astrological preferences meant there was “hope” for a higher fertility rate this year.
The world's second-largest economy is on the brink of a population crisis caused by decades of restricting family sizes. Even as China eases controls – as of 2021, all couples are allowed to have three children – and introduces subsidies and incentives, younger generations are shunning marriage and children.
In 2023, the number of newborns fell for the seventh straight year to 9.02 million – about half what it was in 2017. At this rate, China's population of 1.4 billion is expected to decline to just over half a billion by Year 2100.
“Belief that the Year of the Dragon brings good luck may help some,” said Huang Wenqing, a demographer and senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing. “If the government could think of more targeted ways to encourage fertility, it could achieve a difference of up to 0.01% in the fertility rate,” he said.
Huang and Mukan believe that the Year of the Dragon could increase the number of newborns by about one million, bringing the total number of births to 10 million this year. (Birth rates have seen significant increases in previous Dragon Years, by about 300,000 in 2000 and 900,000 in 2012, according to the Mocan study.)
One piece of evidence for this is rising marriage rates, a trend researchers have seen before the previous Dragon Years. During the first three quarters of 2023, the number of marriages in China rose 4.5 percent compared to the same period a year earlier, and is expected to reach 7 million for this year, up from 6.8 million in 2022.
Sherri Yang, a consultant who connects Chinese women with fertility centers in Kazakhstan, says she received more inquiries than she expected last year given the state of the Chinese economy. One couple's goal was to have three dragon children. They have in vitro fertilization and will have triplets in August.
But she attributes most of the demand to the pandemic, which has forced many to put their lives on hold.
“A lot of people couldn't get pregnant during these three years. Under the health laws and all the rules, it was very disturbing,” she said, referring to China's strict “coronavirus eradication” restrictions that were tracking the health of residents and where they were. Being on their phones.
Elsewhere in Asia, countries are anticipating a mini dragon boom. Postnatal care educator Teresa Tan, whose company operates in Singapore and Malaysia, said she was booked through September, with an increase in bookings of about 40 percent compared to last year. “There has definitely been an impact.”
Over the past few months, clients have been booking rooms as soon as they reach the seventh or eighth week of pregnancy, said Cathy Tsai, a counselor at Infancix, a postpartum care center in Taipei, Taiwan. Most years, mothers wait until about 12 weeks to book.
Mak Ling Ling, a well-known fortune teller in Hong Kong, said she had also received more inquiries, including some from unnamed female celebrities, about having children this year.
“Everyone is a little too hasty trying to have a dragon baby,” she said. “The zodiac still has a big impact on the birth rates of Chinese people, but the problem now is that the economy is bad.”
Even more than the zodiac signs, economics is likely the main factor influencing the birth rate. Without significant improvements in China's slowing economy or major reforms, birth rates will likely not improve significantly.
Poh Lin Tan, a senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Psychiatry, said: “Research suggests that zodiac birth timing tends to influence when a family will have children rather than how many children they end up having, and therefore may not help solve the problem of low fertility.” Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, referring to studies conducted in Hong Kong.
Huang, the demographer in Beijing, said Chinese policymakers were not ambitious enough. “There are no big incentives at the national level, and local governments rely on small amounts of money to provide support, which is absolutely useless,” he said.
However, old beliefs are difficult to shake. Han Yu, an economist at the University of Memphis in Tennessee who worked on a 2019 study linking parents' expectations to the performance of dragon children, wants to have a child this lunar year.
It may be partial. He was also born in the Year of the Dragon and remembers feeling a bit special growing up. “I feel like it's great to have a dragon baby, especially if the father is a dragon,” he said.
Regine Capato in Manila contributed to this report.
