- Temperatures may approach average across the South and East this summer.
- An increasingly likely El Niño is part of this less hot picture.
- Temperatures in June will be above average in the central United States
- By August, above-average warmth will move into parts of the Northwest.
Temperatures will be warmer than average across much of the Lower 48 this summer, but are expected to be cooler than last year, according to a newly released forecast.
“There's going to be a different, cooler summer this year,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, vice president of meteorology at Atmospheric G2 and author of the latest forecast released Thursday from The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and AG2.
Before we get to this summer update, let's first take a look at how the next month is shaping up.
May forecast
Warmer than average temperatures are expected in May in parts of the Northeast and along the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas.
Conversely, temperatures are expected to be cooler than average across much of California through Arizona, and temperatures may tend to be a bit cooler than normal in most areas of the Great Basin and Southwest.
Summer 2023 forecast
Warmer than average conditions will encompass much of the northern half of the country this summer.
Temperatures will be above average in parts of Montana and North Dakota. Warmer-than-average conditions will extend from parts of the Northwest south into Oklahoma and east into the Great Lakes and northern New England.
The rest of the country is expected to see temperatures close to average. Much of the Southeast and parts of California and Arizona will see temperatures near average or slightly cooler.
And if you're wondering about precipitation, the most likely scenario is that above-average rainfall amounts will occur east of the Rocky Mountains while western states will dry out after a wet, cold winter and early spring.
June forecast
Starting in summer in June, the center of heat is expected to be in parts of the central United States, while the East will generally see temperatures near average or slightly warmer.
Parts of California and Arizona have the highest chance of cooler than average temperatures, while parts of the West will be near average.
July forecast
Hotter-than-average temperatures will likely move north in July and extend from parts of the northern Rockies to the northern Plains.
Warmer-than-average temperatures will also extend from parts of the Inland Northwest into the central Rockies, northern Great Lakes and northern New England.
Meanwhile, temperatures will be near average or lean a bit cool over the Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and South, including Florida, as well as parts of California.
August forecast
As summer comes to a close in August, the heat is expected to extend from parts of the West Coast to New England.
Above-average temperatures will extend from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains, but August is expected to be hotter than average overall from the Great Basin to most of the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast.
Again, the southeast could head near average or even a little cooler.
El Niño factor
Many factors are used to produce seasonal forecasts.
What is significantly different from last summer is the shift from La Niña to El Niño. This is the cyclic cooling and warming of tropical Pacific surface temperatures.
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean appear warmer than average as of April 12.
Warmer Pacific waters could cause a stationary zigzag pattern, or northward bump in the jet stream, over the western United States, resulting in warmer-than-average temperatures in that region. Meanwhile, conditions are expected to be cooler than average in the East.
This indicates a generally cooler and wetter than average period from June to August across much of the contiguous United States, especially in parts of the East.
Last year's summer was marked by La Niña conditions, resulting in temperatures that were much warmer than average across much of the United States.
The Weather Company's primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment, and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
