After months of speculation about a rift with Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian General Valery Zalozny has been removed from his post, with the president saying it was “time for renewal”.
Many Ukrainians view General Zalozhny as a national hero, so why was he replaced, and will this change Ukraine's fortunes in the war with Ukraine? Russia?
It is not uncommon for military leadership to rotate during a long period of combat operations. General Zalozny is seen as having been instrumental in resisting the Russian invasion and is a very popular figure in Ukraine.
But military leadership requires a wide range of personality traits, and popularity is not at the top of the list. Wartime requires difficult decisions to be made, often requiring great sacrifices by those under command, which places an extremely heavy burden on senior leaders. Even the most solid leaders eventually begin to feel nervous.
Ukraine A David to the Russian superpower, General Zaloznyi was quick to adopt and support Western military tactics to avoid the traditional war of attrition of the Soviet era.
The West has provided high-tech precision weapons, modern battle tanks, missiles, as well as combat training to Ukrainian forces; However, the “Spring” counteroffensive of 2023 failed to achieve its objectives.
President Volodymyr Zelensky and former Commander-in-Chief Valery Zalozny. Photo: Reuters
With the benefit of hindsight, and in the absence of reliable combat air capability – modern fighter aircraft – Ukraine was always going to suffer. The Ukrainians fought bravely, but a war of attrition began, and General Zaluzny realized that limited resources had to be conserved.
As the front line stabilized and Western support declined, political pressure for progress increased. This created tensions between the military and political leadership, as General Zaloznyi was wary of launching sustained offensive action without Western military support.
Ukraine needed more weapons to win, which would take a long time, as long as President Volodymyr needed. Zelensky Judgment on Ukraine do not have.
The final straw appears to have been reached in November last year, when General Zaloznyi, in a long article and interview in The Economist, said the war had reached a stalemate.
Whatever the battlefield realities, President Zelensky needed to boost confidence among Western allies that victory remained possible, if military equipment and ammunition were on hand. Acknowledging that Ukraine has reached a dead end, as Russia still occupies 20% of Ukraine's territory, was not helpful.
Therefore, President Zelensky decided to change the approach and strategy.
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However, under these circumstances, the decision to replace the popular commander of the Ukrainian army would be risky. Military coups occur when the military loses confidence in its political masters, and it is clear that President Zelenskyy and General Zalozny have very different views on the next phase of the war.
But after weeks of rumours, a smooth transition was eventually agreed upon.
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The new head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is Colonel General Oleksandr Sersky, who is 58 years old, an older officer and more skilled in combat. But since General Sersky will inherit the same military shortcomings that challenged his predecessor, it is difficult to see how this change will have much impact on the battlefield.
General Cirsky has less experience with the Western military doctrine that underpins most high-tech Western munitions.
As for Zalozny, analysts have long speculated about whether he could one day emerge as a political rival to President Zelensky in the upcoming elections. General Eisenhower, Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers in Europe in World War II, had no clear political ambitions at the end of the war, but he became the 34th President of the United States only a few years later.
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However, it seems unlikely at this point that General Zaloznyi will seek political office until the war with Russia is over.
General Zalozny has proven to be a popular and capable wartime leader and will be an extremely difficult man to follow. But sometimes change brings new perspectives and opportunities, and President Zelensky hopes this change will herald a change in the fortunes of Ukraine's war with Russia.
However, time is not on President Zelensky's side, and he may need more than a change in military leadership to turn the tide of war in Ukraine's favor.
