Yes, the deal could still collapse in the Senate, and its prospects in the increasingly anti-immigrant House remain up in the air, but the White House saw a practical bounce in its step after that vote.
“We may be less empty-handed, TBD,” he said.
The annual security conference has been an annual show of transatlantic unity, providing each party's international wing the opportunity to promote its vision of American leadership.
Last year's security conference saw a record attendance of US lawmakers to show unity against Russian President Vladimir Putin, and to tell their European allies not to worry about those vocal Republicans who oppose providing additional funding to Kiev.
“I think too much attention has been paid to too few people who don't seem invested in Ukraine's success,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said last February before heading to Munich.
But those “very few people” have grown in their ranks, and over the past four months they have been obstructing efforts by the Biden administration and traditional security hawks in Congress to replenish Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s weapons.
The bleeding of political support has come from one side of the aisle.
In May 2022, 39 GOP senators joined 47 Democrats in voting for a $40 billion security and humanitarian aid package for Zelensky, with only 11 Republicans voting no.
On Thursday, just 17 Senate Republicans, barely a third of their conference, voted with 50 members of the Democratic caucus to advance debate on the national security measure. On Friday, another Republican voted yes on a procedural motion to advance the bill.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R), one of those who voted yes, warned that his fellow Republicans needed to remain strong in their support for Ukraine or their party would become the face of surrender to Putin.
Tillis said the debate will end over the next few days in one of two ways. “A sufficient number [vote yes] To send it to the House, or Republicans will eventually get the message from the US Senate that there are not enough of us to support aid to Ukraine.
This debate in the Senate comes just after the European Union reached a unanimous agreement among all 27 member states to send $54 billion to support government services in Ukraine, providing a response to far-right critics in Congress who regularly say the EU is not providing… Adequate support. For her own security.
Many of the 31 GOP opponents in the Senate do not want to provide money to Ukraine under any circumstances, while some have said they will vote to do so only if President Biden accepts their precise prescription for supporting the migrant crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border.
Some Republicans made conflicting statements that were a political tidbit.
And on Tuesday, as a larger security package collapsed over partisan divisions over border rules, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) stuck to his long-standing view of wanting to defeat Putin at all costs.
If we fail at the border, we put our country at risk. There is no point in letting the world collapse, because a Putin victory in Ukraine will not solve any of our problems. “It makes all our problems worse,” Graham told reporters.
For several years, Graham served as co-host of Whitehouse's group, which he called the “McCain Delegation,” in honor of the late Senator John S. McCain (R-Ariz.), a legendary presence, has used several recent trips to Munich to reassure allies that Donald Trump's worldview has not taken root in Washington.
On Tuesday, Graham was prepared to nix the controversial border provisions and pass money only to defend Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. “No matter how you feel about the border, Ukraine’s problems, if not managed well, will exacerbate every problem we have at home,” he said.
However, two days later, he reversed his position, voting against the move to discuss the Ukraine-Israel-Taiwan package, and joining the ranks of MAGA senators who want to close the border.
Graham said in an official statement: “I enthusiastically support Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel, but as I have been saying for months, we must protect America first.”
Later Thursday, he got into a heated debate in the Senate with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (R-Ariz.), who helped lead negotiations on the border proposal. Graham mocked Sinema's group for its “sloppy efforts” to reach a border settlement, without acknowledging that he and his staff played regular roles in the talks.
Then he raised a large billboard With a social media post from the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who suggested that Ronald Reagan would be “rolling over in his grave” because of today's Republican positions.
“Shame on you,” Graham shouted, “To the Prime Minister of Poland, I don’t care much about your opinion.”
This is exactly the opposite message that Telles, Whitehouse and others want to convey to Munich.
“There are people in Ukraine right now in the height of winter, in trenches, being bombed and being killed,” Telles said. “The signal from the United States about whether we will be there or not is not only important for the morale of those fighters who have been doing this every day for the past two years, but also for the 50 countries involved in the war.” “They are also part of this alliance.”
Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said he expects to hear the same question from his European counterparts next weekend: “Can we count on you?”
But those GOP voices are increasingly being overlooked by newcomers, like Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), who won in 2022 after remaking himself from a Trump critic into an all-out MAGA theorist.
Vance plans to deliver this blunt message when he goes to his first conference in Munich. “First of all, this war is in your immediate backyard,” he said, then accused the Europeans of “effectively turning NATO into a welfare agent for the United States.”
Of the 17 Republicans who took office after Trump won the presidency, only two voted to advance the Ukraine-focused security package: Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who was 76 and had already served as governor. and his party in 2012. Presidential candidate before joining the Senate five years ago; and Sen. Markwayne Mullen (R-Oklahoma), a leadership ally elected in 2022.
Some Republicans are skeptical of dire predictions that if American funding dries up, Russia could crush the small country.
“I don't think Russia has the capacity to move in and take all of Ukraine, let alone hold it. Before we get aid to Ukraine [in 2022]“The Russians can’t do that,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Thursday. “I think what he is doing is forcing a negotiated settlement that is more favorable to Putin, because he will feel emboldened and stronger.”
Other Republicans say this is naive.
“There are pivotal times in our nation’s history when what we do in this chamber truly matters,” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who co-authored much of the security package, said in a speech. “The way we vote may determine whether people live or die; Whether men and women live under the dictates of an authoritarian regime or as free persons in a democratic state.
Tillis, a member of the Armed Services Committee, said Russia's long-term plan is to reduce American support for the war and dismantle international support for Zelensky.
“For us to leave here with the Senate failing to take up this matter is exactly what Putin hopes will happen this weekend,” he said. “And I will do everything I can to prevent that.”
All of this may end up nowhere in the ultra-conservative House, where GOP leaders are moving in lockstep with Trump. But the White House remained optimistic that Senate leaders are working to include measures that some House Republicans want and are hopeful that a larger vote could be held within a few days of the Senate's final passage of the security measure.
This would make the trip more enjoyable across the Atlantic.
“I think the Munich Security Conference delegation will not have a lot of egg on its face,” Whitehouse said.
