Latest updates Friday: Hurricane Lee's winds doubled in one day. Previous coverage below:
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Hurricane Lee reached Category 5 status on Thursday far out in the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center said.
Lee's winds reached 160mph by 11pm on Thursday, doubling its 24-hour wind speed. The powerful hurricane is expected to strengthen, with wind speeds reaching 180 mph by Friday morning.
Although the hurricane center is still offshore, it warned that “dangerous surf and rip currents can be expected along much of the U.S. East Coast starting Sunday.”
The main question remains whether Lee will make landfall or explode at sea.
Meanwhile, the 13th storm of the season – Margot – formed in the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Just 290 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, it is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend as it moves northward in the Atlantic Ocean away from land.
Rapid intensification to continue
Lee is the fourth hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic season.
Forecasters from the Hurricane Center, AccuWeather and others accurately predicted Lee would quickly strengthen to Category 5 strength on Thursday, but gusty winds are now expected to peak at up to 15 mph higher than expected earlier in the day.
Lee was one of two Category 5 hurricanes monitored by the Hurricane Center. Cyclone Jova orbits over the open Pacific Ocean, far from land.
Where is Lee now?
As of 11pm Thursday, Lee was about 700 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands in the northeastern Caribbean Sea, moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph.
“Additional strengthening appears likely, as Lee remains in a low-shear environment and on very warm waters,” the center's discussion said.
Long-range forecasts indicate that it will likely bend northward next week before reaching Florida. Potential impacts from Lee along the rest of the East Coast of the United States remain uncertain.
Since 2016, the Atlantic has seen seven Category 5 hurricanes: Matthew in 2016, Irma in 2017, Maria in 2017, Michael in 2018, Dorian in 2019, and Ian in 2022, a Colorado State University hurricane researcher reported. , Phil Klotzbach, on X.
Wilma holds the record for rapid condensation
Despite its rapid ascension to such high wind speeds, Lee is not the storm that is doing so the fastest in the Atlantic. This record belongs to Hurricane Wilma.
In October 2005, Wilma developed from a tropical storm into a Category 5 hurricane within 24 hours, according to the Hurricane Center's post-storm report. Wilma also holds the record for the lowest atmospheric pressure in an Atlantic storm, at 882 millibars.
Where is Lee headed? Will it make it to the East Coast?
Lee is expected to move toward the northwest over the open Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.
Furthermore, all of the major hurricane models that meteorologists use to predict storms indicate that Lee will bend away from Florida. Looking further afield, the latest projections suggest that Lee's path could vary across a wide swath extending from the East Coast of the United States north to eastern Canada, or move away from the coast altogether.
“It is possible that it will eventually make landfall in the Canadian Maritime Provinces or the U.S. East Coast north of Florida after Lee passes Bermuda, as it bends to the northeast, out to sea,” said meteorologist Jeff Masters of Yale Climate Connections. .
“Right now, the area in the United States that really needs attention includes locations from the Outer Banks of North Carolina all the way to the Northeast,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Bernie Reino said.
Whatever happens, most beaches along the eastern United States will likely see stronger waves and dangerous rip currents next week.
Hurricane Center forecast track for Lee
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm's center. It does not show the full width of the storm or its effects, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Hurricanes are expected to reach the Caribbean
“Surges from Hurricane Lee are expected to reach parts of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend,” the hurricane center said. “These swells will likely cause life-threatening waves and rip current conditions.”
How does the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season stack up?
Lee was the twelfth storm to form this season. It is the fourth hurricane of the season.
Lee is also the third Category 4 storm this year, after Hurricanes Franklin and Idalia.
The average hurricane season produces 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. Even before the season began, forecasters said 2023 was likely to be a busier season than usual, but they raised their forecast in August, calling for 14 to 21 named storms.
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Lee
A special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all of them are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five top-performing models to help make its forecasts.
Cyclone Jova is already a Category 5 storm
In the Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Jova swept into open waters off the southwestern coast of Mexico as a Category 5 storm. He did not pose any threat to the ground.
It was located about 535 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and was moving west-northwest at 16 mph with winds of up to 160 mph.
Jova saw rapid intensification over the past day, with the storm's wind speeds increasing by 86 mph in 24 hours from Wednesday to Thursday, AccuWeather reported.
The storm is expected to weaken as of late Thursday.
Contributing: Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network; USA Today; Associated Press
