Medical advances have changed the game in every possible way for today's population. Things that seemed like a big problem even just a few decades ago can now be easily dealt with thanks to all the advancements that have been made at the behest of humans. One of the biggest transformations that the human race has witnessed due to scientific progress is undoubtedly the lengthening of life expectancy. David Atlans and his colleagues conducted a study to analyze how longevity will affect the future of the human species and whether the improvement will be uniform across the world. They also studied the differences between the sexes in this regard and the extent of improvement that has occurred over the years.
In order to analyze the phenomenon of longevity in various parts of the Earth, the first step the researchers took was to learn more about the factors affecting this phenomenon. They expressed a desire to understand whether the reasons behind the increase in people's lifespans have common ground, regardless of different fields. Next, they wanted to examine whether these factors were becoming stronger across the board. The analysis was performed with the help of a statistical model created based on the factors that influenced longevity. Data for the model were taken from United Nations Population Division records and population projections for 194 countries spanning 1990 to 2030. Overall, nine indicators of mortality were taken into account in the study which included life expectancy at birth and the Gini Index (a). Age inequality measure).
The researchers found that the mortality indicators divided all countries into five groups, or groups, from 1990 to 2010. The five groups had different ranges of life expectancy. There were times in those ten years when countries swapped places in the group due to changing circumstances. This change is primarily due to incidents such as war or unstable social, economic and political conditions. One thing that had common ground across all groups was increased life expectancy. It was not only First World countries that experienced this boom; The increase has occurred worldwide. The region that performs best in terms of longevity is Africa. In conclusion, the authors write: “Of all the convergence clubs, Africa is the region that has seen the most significant improvements in mortality indicators. Even the best-performing (high-income) countries continue to grow, although these improvements have slowed over time.”
Moreover, the disparity between males and females in terms of longevity has decreased significantly. Despite this decline, researchers believe the gap will always persist. They explained in the study that this is due to the presence of Y chromosomes. They explained that “males lose this chromosome during the aging process while females retain it, which allows us to explain why these differences will persist in the future, according to our expectations.”
The statistical model was applied again to predict longevity in 2030 and the result remained positive. Despite the model's findings, the researchers accept that many uncertain factors, such as disease or war, can affect the possibility of longevity, something the model cannot take into account at present. The researchers hope to conduct further analysis in this area. “As a future line of research, it would be particularly interesting to review our mortality estimates and cohort compositions in 2030, when we have reliable data. This future analysis will allow us to evaluate the degree of accuracy of our estimates for 2023.”
