Indonesia's presidential candidates (from left) Janjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan.credit: Aditya Erawan
Prabowo is Prabowo Subianto, the former special forces commander who was once so unpalatable to Americans' human rights sensibilities that successive administrations barred him from entry.
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If the name sounds familiar, it's because we've been here before. The former son-in-law of dictator Suharto years ago founded his own political party, Golkar, as a way to power. He lost presidential elections twice to Jokowi. First as a fire-breathing nationalist in 2014, and again in 2019 as an ardent Islamist.
In this campaign, the 72-year-old claims a softer side: a sensitive, animal-loving modern man; A cute uncle – with great dance moves to match.
Respected opinion polls have him ahead of his rivals, Jangar Prannoo and Anies Baswedan, by more than 20 points.
Markus Metzner, associate professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, believes that if Subianto is unable to overcome his rivals on Wednesday with a 50 per cent majority, he will overtake Survivor in a run-off in June.
“The most interesting question is what kind of Prabowo will appear at the palace in October,” he says.
A man walks past the General Election Commission banner showing the presidential candidates, from left, Anies Baswedan and his deputy Muhaimin Iskandar, Prabowo Subianto and his deputy Gibran Rakabuming Raka, and Ganjar Pranowo and his deputy Mahfud in Jakarta.credit: AP
There are logical reasons to believe that he will simply try to replicate Jokowi's success formula: sit at the head of a grand coalition, use the state apparatus to distribute rewards and punishments, and distribute patronage to elites.
“This means that, contrary to his 2014 plans, he will not attempt to dismantle democracy – but rather will tightly control existing formal democratic processes.
“But there is also the question of his temperament — and that is where the analytical power of political rationality ends. “No one can predict with any kind of certainty whether he will be able to control his short fuse once he has full power,” says Metzner.
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“I think he will be surrounded by family and loyalists whose job it will be to keep such events behind closed doors.”
Despite his absence from the presidential ballots, Jokowi looms over the outcome as anything but yesterday's man. His enduring popularity among voters made him a kingmaker and, thus, the virtual master of his political legacy.
Only Anies, the former Islamist governor of Jakarta, has dared to suggest meaningful policy alternatives if elected, particularly threatening Ben Jokowi's $34 billion ($51 billion) vision for a new capital in the remote jungle of Borneo.
Former Central Java Governor Jangar, who was appointed by Jokowi's party and was his presumptive successor, has struggled to distinguish himself while remaining broadly supportive of the president.
Jokowi's man is Prabowo, who, despite their historical political animosity, is doing everything in his power to realize his decades-long dream of supreme power. Not only did he publicly support the president's policies, he chose Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the 36-year-old son of the outgoing president and mayor of Sulu, as his running mate.
Prabowo shakes hands with his colleague Gebran, Jokowi's eldest son, at the end of a televised debate between the vice-presidential candidates.credit: AP
The pairing was made possible last year thanks to strange events within the Indonesian Constitutional Court, which ruled that Gibran's successful election in Sulu exempted him from the 40-year-old minimum age for vice president.
The man who cast the deciding vote on the nine-member panel was Supreme Court Chief Justice Anwar Usman, Jokowi's brother-in-law and uncle, Gibran. Usman and Jokowi denied the accusations of family interference.
Indonesians reject public calls for the presidency during elections, and Jokowi was careful not to explicitly endorse Prabowo. The message was more subtle: eat together near a street-facing window, for example, a photo of which quickly appeared on Prabowo's social media accounts.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo (right) has dinner with Subianto on January 5.
Academics from dozens of Indonesian universities joined this week to protest Jokowi's manipulation of state institutions to engineer political outcomes. Students also rallied on Wednesday, demanding that Jokowi keep his nose out of the campaign.
Wilson, who is on the ground in Indonesia to witness the campaigns, believes Jokowi may have made a mistake in pinning his legacy on Prabowo's changing form. “I am convinced that when Prabowo takes over the presidency, and he has already used Jokowi's popularity to get there, he will have a very clear agenda of his own,” he says.
“I'm not sure it will pay off for him outside of the many rumors about Prabowo's health. If Prabowo is not up to the task, Jokowi's son will take over and take a backseat. He is thinking about that.”
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