Will North Korea detonate a nuclear bomb? Why Cryptocurrency Bettors Rate This As More Likely Than You Think

Cryptocurrency bettors polymarket, Cryptocurrency-based prediction market, think about opportunities north korea Detonating a nuclear bomb is a small but significant matter: the market in which North Korea could detonate “a nuclear device of any capacity by March 31, 2024” is about 5%.

What happened: Market rules specify that they “include offensive uses, nuclear tests, and accidental explosions” but do not include a botched detonation, a fake weapon, or a dirty bomb.

A trading volume of around $80,000 is relatively modest, although one trader will earn more than $50,000 if the market chooses yes.

Interest in prediction markets has risen significantly, with Polymarket hitting a record $50 million in trading volume in January 2024 as interest in policy-related bets grows.

Despite the abundance of election-related markets, US users are prohibited from betting due to a CFTC order.

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why does it matter?: The odds may seem great to an outsider, but a Daily Beast article discusses why North Korea testing a nuclear weapons in 2024 is not unlikely.

Kim Jong Un's war preparations, fueled by his ambitions with support from China and Russia, heighten US concerns. At the end of January, North Korea launched three cruise missiles within one week as part of ongoing threats toward its southern neighbor, South Korea.

The Daily Beast quoted Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst and longtime Korea expert at the Heritage Foundation, as saying that the North Korean regime could “launch an intercontinental ballistic missile over Japan and demonstrate multi-warhead or re-entry vehicle capabilities.” “.

Bruce Bechtol, a former intelligence analyst at the Department of Defense, believes that “renewed and focused testing of North Korea’s ballistic missile systems and perhaps even a nuclear test” is on the agenda.

North Korea has previously tested nuclear warheads six times: in 2006, 2009, 2013, and twice in 2016 and 2017.

What then: Prediction markets, such as the market for the Republican vice presidential candidate, continue to attract the interest of bettors and analysts looking for concrete odds alike.

Read next: Trump Vs. BIDEN: Poll shows one candidate overwhelmingly viewed as more competent in handling the economy

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