Winter over the Northern Plains and upper Midwest appears to be sledding on thin ice with short-term warming with no arctic air or snowstorms in the near future, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
Unusual warmth will build up in the area through Thursday and could continue into February with a few misses along the way.
Clouds versus sun can greatly affect temperatures
Mild air from the Pacific Ocean will dominate the weather pattern across the United States through the beginning of February and, combined with a lack of snow in much of the country, will allow temperatures to rise.
Clouds versus sun will hold the key to midweek temperatures. Where low clouds are present, temperatures will drop by 10-20 degrees. However, when the clouds break, sunlight will allow temperatures to rise to spring levels, especially when the ground is free of snow.
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“Clouds brought gloomy skies through much of January, but the sun returned in style on Monday with record-breaking high temperatures in places like Minneapolis,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Benz said. Temperatures reached 50 degrees on Monday, breaking the old record of 49 degrees set during the Great Depression in 1931.
Temperature records on the bubble
After a brief burst of cold air following a windy storm on Tuesday, temperatures will rise again over the region starting Thursday.
Duluth, Minnesota, on Wednesday recorded a high temperature of 47 degrees, just one degree below the January 31 daily record of 48 degrees set in 1891.
“High temperatures will reach the 50s across much of Minnesota midweek, and may not only set more daily record highs, but may also challenge all-time records for January,” Benz said. The highest temperature ever recorded during the month of January in Minneapolis was 58 degrees recorded on January 25, during World War II in 1944.
As of early afternoon, the temperature had already surpassed the Jan. 31 daily record of 46 degrees set most recently in 2009 in Minneapolis.
Even if temperature records remain unchanged, temperatures will rise 15 to 25 degrees above the historical average as January ends and February begins.
Effects on wintering area
While temperatures well above the historical average may be great news for heating budgets, they're bad news for private contractors who rely on plowing operations for winter income, especially for outdoor winter activities like ice fishing.
“During the heart of winter, ice anglers across the upper Midwest are typically out on area lakes in full force,” said AccuWeather Long Range Meteorologist and Angler Brandon Buckingham. “This winter has been anything but normal, with a late start to the season, and now we are likely to see an early end to the season as well.”
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Some hunters in Wisconsin and Minnesota are making the difficult decision to remove seasonal hunting lodges due to persistent, long-term warmth that creates dangerous snowfall. The igloos can usually rest on the thick ice that covers the region's lakes from late December to March, but ice cover on the Great Lakes is well below the historical average this winter.
“After a brief lake effect snowfall earlier in January across Michigan, outdoor enthusiasts were hopeful for favorable conditions through the rest of the winter, but that has since faded as warmth settled in, causing the snow to melt.” Buckingham said.
In many cases, the amount of snow so far this winter is dwarfed by last winter.
Snowmobilers have had a tough time this season as well throughout the upper Midwest. The world's largest snowshoe race, the International 500, is scheduled to take place on Saturday, February 3, in Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan. However, lack of snow and dwindling snow cover may put this at risk.
The northern Michigan city averages about 10 feet of snowfall during the winter, but so far this winter, less than half of that has fallen. The period from January 22 to 29 also witnessed temperatures 11 to 21 degrees higher than the historical average. Only about 4 inches of snow remained on the ground as of Tuesday, January 30.
There is little air in the Arctic, and the continuation of storms is limited
“As we head into February, the amount of warmth will continue across the Great Lakes region with no additional snow expected in the near term,” Buckingham said.
The main storm track will be across the southern states with weak, moisture-hungry systems across the northern tier.
“The developing weather pattern will likely feature a long period where there is little or no precipitation — perhaps 10 days or more from the upper Midwest to parts of the Northeast,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
The lack of humidity and major storms could be great news for those craving sunshine after a very cloudy month. An increase in sunny days may help provide relief for those suffering from seasonal affective disorder.
The southern storm's track includes rounds of rain and mountain snow for California in the coming days, with one of several storms brewing through Friday.
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