SAN DIEGO — As one weather river comes and goes, our attention turns to the next storm that is shaping up to be the strongest storm of the winter season so far.
San Diego County gets a break from the rain on Saturday but rain returns to the area from the north on Sunday afternoon.
Heavy rain is expected on Monday as the next atmospheric river passes. This is a much slower moving storm system that is expected to produce widespread moderate to heavy rain.
Light rain is expected on Sunday afternoon, increasing in severity and intensity by Monday morning. The highest risk of heavy rain appears to be similar to Monday/Monday night.
The Storm Prediction Center has much of Southern California, including San Diego County, at moderate risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding early next week. That means 9.1 million Californians face at least a 40% risk of rainfall reaching a flash flood channel within 25 miles of some point.
In other words, there's a lot of confidence that SoCal beaches will get a lot of rain all at once. Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles counties are expected to see heavy rain, but San Diego County remains in the firing line.
Here are the estimated rainfall totals through Tuesday for San Diego/Orange counties:
– Coast/valleys: 2 to 3 inches
– Mountains: 3 to 6 inches
– Deserts: 0.50 to 1 inch
By Tuesday, the plume of moisture will extend directly over San Diego but will be a bit weaker – and precipitation could still stop over the area Tuesday onward.
A flood watch goes into effect across the county Sunday afternoon through at least Wednesday morning. Travel will be very chaotic across the state this weekend, especially Sunday.
We hope to have a better model agreement over the weekend, so be sure to check back for updates as the storm approaches.
