This weekend is very busy with Mardi Gras parades, and it's the wrong time to bring the threat of heavy rain, flooding and possible strong storms into the forecast for New Orleans. The Setup: A large, very strong storm system will swing into the area on Saturday, bringing the potential for locally heavy rain and some possible strong storms. Timing: A cold front will move into the area to provide a chance for showers by mid-morning, with scattered showers possible in the afternoon hours, but heavier showers and possible thunderstorms are likely after 3 p.m. Rainfall/Flooding: This may be our biggest risk, considering all the recent rain we've received. One of our best forecasts calls for widespread rainfall centered directly over southeastern Louisiana. The short-term high-resolution data had converged on a broad range of 1″-3″ by Sunday morning. This forecast by a team of skilled meteorologists shows 1″-3″ with some room for more than 3″. Severe weather is likely, but my analysis shows street flooding is the biggest concern. That's why Saturday was a WDSU's first Weather Impact Warning. Severe Threats: The threat of potentially severe weather in the form of strong, damaging winds over 58 mph is still a possibility, but the tornado risk is now close to 0. I still see a very small risk of possible hail if we are to catch For more severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put a very small sliver of the area below the lowest threat level of 1 in 5 (marginal danger) for possible severe storms where damaging winds and hail are the main threats. Here's how I see our severe threats at this point. Still Heavy rain and potential flooding are at the top of my list, followed by damaging wind gusts over 58 mph, then the possibility of hail, with the tornado threat near 0. Be sure to follow this story as we will be updating it continually throughout Saturday, along with our forecasts In-depth news on WDSU.
This weekend is very busy with Mardi Gras parades, and it's the wrong time to bring the threat of heavy rain, flooding and possible strong storms into the forecast for New Orleans.
Prove:
A large and very strong storm system will swing into the area on Saturday bringing the potential for locally heavy rain and some possible strong storms.
timing:
A cold front is expected to move into the area to bring a chance of rain by mid-morning, with scattered showers possible in the afternoon hours, but heavy rain and thunderstorms possible after 3 p.m.
Rainfall/flooding:
This may be the biggest risk to us, considering all the rain we've received recently. One of our best forecasts calls for widespread rainfall centered directly over southeastern Louisiana. The short-term high-resolution data had converged on a broad range of 1″-3″ by Sunday morning.
This forecast by a team of skilled meteorologists shows 1″-3″ with an area of more than 3 inches.
The area is under a level 2 out of 4 (slight) risk of locally heavy rainfall, so the threat of flooding will be our biggest risk of potential severe weather, but my analysis shows street flooding is the biggest concern. That's why we had Saturday as WDSU's first weather impact warning day.
Serious threats:
The threat of potentially severe weather in the form of strong, damaging winds in excess of 58 mph is still a possibility, but the tornado risk is now close to 0. I still see a very small risk of possible hail if we are to experience more severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed a very small portion of the area under the lowest threat level of 1 in 5 (marginal risk) for potentially severe storms with damaging winds and hail being the primary threats.
Here's how I see our extreme threats at this point. Heavy rain and potential flooding remain at the top of my list, followed by damaging wind gusts over 58 mph, then possible hail, with a tornado threat near 0.
Be sure to follow this story as we will keep it updated through Saturday, along with our in-depth predictions on WDSU News.
