The United States is trying to strike Iranian targets in the Middle East with enough force to stop attacks against American forces, but not with force that leads to broader escalation or even outright war with Iran.
In recent days, experts have called this strategy the “moderate” approach because it has to be just right.
Joe Biden He explained that the response comes from the moment he accused “the extremist armed groups supported by Iran and operating in Syria and Iraq” of Three American service members were killed In Jordan in a drone attack about a week ago.
But the president also indicated that his retaliation would be measured rather than hasty, saying it would be “at a time and in a manner of our choosing.”
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The United States begins a wave of air strikes in Iraq and Syria
This has given the administration time to try to navigate the delicate path between launching a strong and effective military strike against Iranian interests and igniting a new conflict in a region that has already reached a boiling point in the wake of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, which prompted the United States to escalate. The Israeli war in Gaza.
The map shows the approximate targets of US strikes
By choosing not to strike Iran itself directly, Biden deliberately sought to avoid escalation, even though he could have justified strikes inside Iranian territory given Tehran's alleged support for groups accused of a deadly drone attack in Jordan.
However, he still chooses to go after Iran's Quds Force, within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — the most powerful arm of Iranian military power in the region and the organization that runs Tehran's network of proxy militias.
This level of attack could lead to a direct and escalatory Iranian response against American targets. Washington hopes that does not happen.
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Almost exactly three years ago, when Donald Trump While he was president, the United States killed the top Iranian general who commanded the Quds Force during the most effective period of the proxy war against American, British, and other Western interests in the Middle East.
the The assassination of Qassem Soleimani A drone strike in Iraq in January 2020 led to an Iranian missile attack on US forces, also in Iraq, in retaliation — a moment of extreme danger when the two sides last appeared on the brink of all-out war.
This did not happen.
This time, the Biden administration is likely to have tried to work behind the scenes with Iran to reduce the risk of a similar type of Iranian retaliation.
Washington also stated that Friday's strikes were just the beginning, meaning its opponents were aware of this.
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Biden joins the families of US soldiers killed in a drone attack
The president again framed his threat to give the sense that the United States was making the decisions rather than forcing it to take action.
“Our response began today,” he said in a statement issued by the White House on Friday. “It will continue at times and places of our choosing.”
He added: “The United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world. But let all those who might seek to harm us know this: If you harm an American, we will respond.”
Right now, perhaps the greatest risk for the United States is that its barrage of strikes against 85 Iran-linked targets in Iraq and Syria will not be enough to deter new attacks that harm or kill more Americans.
If that happens again, the president may have no choice but to order strikes against him Iran directly.
