Tuvalu is one of three Pacific island nations that still recognize Taiwan, following Nauru's diplomatic switch to China last month. But that may change after last week's election, when Tuvalu's pro-Taiwan prime minister surprisingly lost his seat.
Saif Bainyu, the most pro-China Finance Minister, was not only re-elected, but also emerged as one of the top contenders for the position of Prime Minister.
Bainio told The Washington Post that he is open to recognizing China — a move that would leave the self-governing island of Taiwan with only two allies in the Pacific — Palau and the Marshall Islands — and fewer than a dozen allies around the world.
“For me, it boils down to which country… provides the greatest support to achieving Tuvalu’s development priorities and aspirations,” Bainio said. “The entire relationship will need to be carefully reviewed and evaluated before an informed decision is reached about the switch.”
As China competes with the United States for power and influence in the Pacific region, it has tirelessly tried to distance its allies from Taiwan by numerous means – most importantly money.
It has offered much-needed money to struggling island nations such as Nauru, and has allegedly distributed cash envelopes to officials – an accusation Beijing denies. They networked with Pacific politicians while traveling abroad, inviting some to lunch and observing others. Two Pacific leaders said Chinese officials called to reprimand them so often that they changed their numbers.
“China sees an opportunity,” said Surangel Whipps Jr., the president of Palau, one of Taiwan's two remaining Pacific allies, who changed his phone number after calls from a Chinese official turned angry. Whipps said that he and his country were subjected to intense pressure from Beijing before the elections scheduled for next November.
“They are trying to get the message across: Join us and you will be better off,” he said in an interview. “And it's tempting to get Covid, when you have a lot of debt, when your country is up against the wall and China says we should do all this for you.”
The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
It's all part of Beijing's decades-long campaign to intimidate Taiwan, which it claims is part of China, and which has escalated under Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who recently said Chinese rule over the island is “inevitable.” Beijing has pushed countries to recognize China, not Taiwan, as a way to advance its claims, and by targeting its allies, China is isolating Taiwan on the international stage.
Chinese officials appear to be redoubling these efforts after the election of Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party, a man Beijing considers a dangerous separatist, as Taiwan's new president.
Sudden switch in Nauru
Two days after the election, Nauru gave Taiwan two hours' notice that it would end its relations with Taipei “with immediate effect” and establish relations with Beijing.
Last November, Nauru and Taiwan were discussing new issues Flight routes. That month, Nauru officials met with Taiwan and its other Pacific allies on the sidelines of a summit in the Cook Islands. There was no sign that Nauru was about to transform. “I thought everything was great,” said Whipps, who was at the meeting.
But by the end of the year, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu was hearing otherwise. He was informed by Nauru's Foreign Minister Lionel Injimiya on the island Wu said his country is under “major financial pressure” due to reduced funding from Australia to establish an overseas center to process refugee applications.
Wu offered to talk with the United States and Australia about making up the shortfall, but in the background China was already taking steps.
Wu soon learned that Beijing was offering Nauru a deal worth more than $100 million, more than half of Nauru's 2023-2024 budget and more than 10 times what Taiwan gives Nauru annually in project-based aid.
“A Nauruan friend told us… that China promised them that the help was unlimited – no matter what they asked for,” Wu said.
Injemiya said the diplomatic shift last month was because China was better able to help Nauru. “To say it's about the dollar is an absolute insult to us,” he told The Washington Post. “It is about our development strategy.”
Beijing has approved infrastructure projects including a sports stadium, schools, hospitals and office complexes, as well as plans to move vulnerable coastal buildings to higher ground and extend the life of old phosphate mines.
Injemiya said discussions with China began more than a year ago. Nauru never told Taipei that it was considering switching But she mentioned “geopolitical pressures.”
“They should have come forward and said they would come and help,” Enjemiya said. “We are not a beggar nation that goes around asking people for our open hands.”
After success in the Nauru case, Chinese officials have since promised to entice more of Taiwan's remaining allies – 11 countries, many of them small, and the Holy See. The head of the diplomatic team overseeing the reopening of the Chinese embassy in Nauru indicated last week that the remaining three Pacific nations would soon switch.
“China has already established diplomatic relations with 10 countries in the Pacific – Nauru is in 11th place and I am confident it will not be the last,” Wang Shuguang told Chinese state media.
The competition for allies also illustrates China's desire to extend its influence in areas usually subject to Western influence.
“In the past, Beijing’s focus was mainly on Taiwan itself,” said Lu Yih-chung, a professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University in Taipei. “They have now shown that they intend to compete with the United States and Australia by kidnapping Taiwan’s allies in the South Pacific.”
Nauru's shift also signals Beijing's new efforts to make the one-China principle – which asserts that Taiwan is part of China – an acceptable reality. In announcing its shift and commitment to the one-China principle, Nauru described it as “in line” with a 1971 UN resolution that made Beijing China's sole representative in the organization. By linking the two, Beijing is “infiltrating the idea that Taiwan is part of China into the rules-based international order,” Lu said.
Now newly elected officials in Tuvalu are in the process of choosing who will become prime minister. Aside from Bainyu, most of the contenders have publicly rejected the idea of transforming relations with Beijing. Opposition leader Enele Sopoaga, who retained his seat in parliament, said in December that he would “never” side with China.
Taiwan's ambassador to Tuvalu, Andrew Lin, said Taiwan provides Tuvalu about $12 million annually in direct budget support, along with funds for projects including about $10 million for the proposed new parliament building.
All the while, China was targeting officials in Tuvalu.
Simon Coffey, a member of parliament who was re-elected last week, said Chinese officials contacted him during a trip to Fiji, which maintains diplomatic relations with Beijing, in 2022, when he was Tuvalu's foreign minister. The officials offered to meet the Chinese ambassador, but Kofi refused. “If it happened to me, it definitely happens to others,” Coffey said.
Taiwan's other Pacific allies – Palau and the Marshall Islands – have security agreements called free association pacts with the United States, making a shift less likely.
Marshall Islands President Hilde Heine said her country still has strong relations with Taiwan and is not under Chinese pressure to switch “at the moment.”
But Whipps said Palau's close relationship with the United States made it a bigger target for China: “They are very interested in upending a compact state.”
Whipps said Palau would not change during his presidency. But he feared what might happen if someone else were elected.
“We know that if we all cut ties with Taiwan, that gives China the green light to take over Taiwan,” he said. “For a small island like us, this is kind of scary.”
Miller reported from Sydney. Kuo and Chiang reported from Taipei.
