A poll published on Wednesday showed that former President Donald Trump is ahead of President Joe Biden in the US states that are likely to determine the race for the White House in 2024.
Trump has 48% support on average among swing state voters, compared to 42% for Biden, according to a Bloomberg News-Morning Consult poll that focused on seven battleground states.
The former Republican president's lead over the incumbent Democratic president was largest in North Carolina, at 10 percentage points, and smallest in Arizona and Pennsylvania, at 3 points, as shown in the chart below.
Bloomberg News/Morning Consult
About 51% of swing state voters said they trust Trump's ability to manage Biden's American economy, while 33% said Biden would be better, according to the poll.
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Regarding immigration, 52% said that Trump would be better on this issue, compared to 30% who preferred Biden.
One bright spot for Biden's reelection campaign: 53% of voters in the seven battleground states said they would not be willing to support Trump in the general election if he is found guilty of a crime, and 55% said they would not support him if he is sentenced to prison.
Trump faces charges in Washington, D.C., and in Fulton County, Georgia, in election interference cases. He was also charged last year in a bribery money case and a secret documents case. The 45th president has denied any wrongdoing and said the prosecutions are politically motivated. Many Republican voters share his views and rally around him.
Other polls conducted in January in swing states showed Biden leading. The Democratic incumbent received 47% support among Pennsylvania voters to Trump's 39% in a Susquehanna Polling & Research poll, and 45% support in a Michigan poll to Trump's 41%.
But Wednesday's poll is consistent with a poll conducted by The New York Times in cooperation with Siena College in November that showed Trump leading Biden by between three and ten points in five of the six battleground states.
Nikki Haley is still in the running for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, but is widely viewed as a long shot, so many analysts have moved to prepare for a rematch between Trump and Biden in the general election.
Major US stock indexes SPX DJIA COMP were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's announcement on interest rate policy.
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