- Fall can start with hotter weather in the southern tier of the United States
- Temperatures are expected to be close to average in most areas of the Midwest and East.
Fall could start with the remaining hot temperatures of summer in parts of the country's heat-weary Southern Tier, with the northern and eastern United States seeing temperatures very typical for fall over the next three months.
Here's the big picture for fall (September to November): Temperatures will be above average from California and Oregon east into the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast and Florida, according to the latest forecasts from The Weather Company, IBM Business and Atmopheric G2. Southeastern Arizona to southern New Mexico and southwest Texas can be hotter compared to average.
Much of the East Coast westward into the Midwest and far northwest will have temperatures near or slightly above average.
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Temperature forecast map for September through November
Since this forecast represents a general three-month trend, there will likely be warmer or cooler periods in each region of the country than shown above.
With that in mind, let's dive into the details month by month to see how some of these temperature fluctuations might play out.
September is characterized by the contrast between the heat of summer and the excitement of autumn. Temperatures are expected to be above average from south Louisiana westward into Texas and the Southwest. All of these regions have already suffered an extremely hot summer.
Temperatures are possible to be somewhat cooler than average from the upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and Northeast. This means that some early season cold fronts may be present.
Temperature forecast for September
“Given the latest guidance, we have made some big changes to our September outlook toward warmer results in the western U.S. and cooler results in the Northeast,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, deputy chief meteorologist at Atmospheric G2.
This forecast assumes there will be some recurring tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic that help create a southward pullback in the jet stream that keeps the Northeast cool, according to Crawford.
October may see a shift in warm versus cooler areas. Parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast may trend warmer than average in the second month of fall. Much of the southern United States is also expected to be warmer than average.
The only region where somewhat cooler than average temperatures are preferred is in the northern Plains and upper Midwest.
Temperature forecast for October
November can be mild for most of the United States Temperatures are likely to be above average in the western two-thirds of the country in the last month of fall. Most eastern regions will be close to average or slightly above.
This doesn't mean it won't feel like fall, just that temperatures will be somewhat warmer than is typical for the month.
Temperature forecast for November
Chris Dolce He has been a senior meteorologist at Weather.com for over 10 years after starting his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.
The Weather Company's primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment, and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
