Economy. Immigration. Climate change. miscarriage.
Elections depend on hot-button issues like these.
But a new wedge issue is beginning to emerge in American politics, one that is expected to push millions of voters to the polls. One that blurs party lines and demographic boundaries. This may determine the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections.
encryption.
In contrast to 2020, cryptocurrency holders are gathering into a cohesive voting bloc in 2024. Millions of these voters live in key swing states where the last presidential election was decided by the narrowest of margins. Millions consider cryptocurrencies a make-or-break issue at the ballot box, according to research by Morning Consult.
The Rise of Crypto Voters
The rise of crypto voters directly tracks the emergence of cryptocurrencies as an asset class.
Keep in mind that the bulk of Bitcoin's recent rally has occurred after Presidential Election 2020. It was months before Michael Saylor wore his profile picture with a laser eye, corporate brands started tweeting “WAGMI,” and Elon Musk promoted Dogecoin on national television.
Biden's election followed the most explosive period in retail adoption in the industry's history. The recent bull run has created a new class of millionaires – and a much larger class of crypto voters.
Today, one in five Americans own digital assets. That's 52 million people. Perhaps most surprising is the political makeup of this demographic: According to survey data from Coinbase and Morning Consult, 22% of participating cryptocurrency holders identified as Democrats, 18% as Republicans, and 22% as Independents. Furthermore, 60% of them are Gen Z or Millennials, and 41% are minorities.
Young, diverse and bipartisan. These are the three basic characteristics of the cryptocurrency circuit. Although this voting bloc was not an influential factor in 2020, it is poised to play a major role next November.
Flirting with the Cryptocurrency Vote: Is it the Key to the White House?
Swing voters decide elections. That's why campaigns build their teams in battleground states like New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Morning Consult conducted a survey to gauge cryptocurrency sentiment in these four swing states. In doing so, it has discovered millions of Americans for whom digital assets are a major issue.
The most important discovery? Nearly 18% of voters in these states (or 3.4 million people) own digital assets. Of these, 55% said they would be less likely to vote for candidates who stand in the way of cryptocurrency values. These values include the belief that the current economic system is unfair and favors large corporations, and the corresponding desire for a decentralized web-based economy3.
In other words, Cryptocurrencies could decide the votes of up to 1.9 million voters in these four swing states alone, enough to tip the election.
These seesaw states are often determined by a thin margin. In 2020, for example, Biden beat Trump by just 82,000 votes in Pennsylvania and just 34,000 votes in Nevada.
Given the rapid growth of this voting bloc, candidates could redraw the electoral map in 2024 by adopting pro-crypto positions. The numbers paint a clear picture: any presidential candidate who secures the cryptocurrency vote could also secure the White House.
The cryptocurrency vote is essentially up for grabs, and the sheer size of this voting bloc represents a massive opportunity for political candidates. To better understand this opportunity, I reached out to Faryar Shirzad, Head of Policy at Coinbase.
“There are tens of millions of Americans who have participated in the cryptocurrency economy,” Shirzad said. “When I talk to innovators across the country, the passion they have for what blockchain technology can do is incredible. Any politician who ignores this passionate community is missing an important and passionate portion of the American electorate.”
Biden, Bitcoin, and young voters
Now here's the irony: Despite the political upside of embracing Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, the two parties' main contenders — Joe Biden and Donald Trump — have mostly stayed away from them.
In the case of President Biden, he seems completely uninterested in engaging with this group of voters. In fact, many of his policies have alienated digital asset holders.
Last year, for example, President Biden Accused “Wealthy Cryptocurrency Investors” Exploiting Tax Loopholes Supported by “MAGA Republicans.” Meanwhile, the SEC's top cop — Chairman Gary Gensler — has sought to bring cryptocurrency exchanges and protocols to its knees through a regulation-by-enforcement approach that many members of Congress have denounced. One of his strongest allies in the Senate, Senator Elizabeth Warren, has formed an “anti-crypto army” to wage war on the industry.
Could the administration's hostile stance toward cryptocurrencies come back to haunt Biden in November?
Gemini co-founder and president Cameron Winklevoss seems to think so. in mail In In Winklevoss's view, Warren and Gensler could serve as an albatross around Biden's neck by reminding voters of the crackdown his administration is waging on cryptocurrency companies and investors.
Given Biden's aggressive approach to regulating digital assets, will Donald Trump differentiate himself from his rival by taking the opposite tack?
Trump's big opportunity
By simply embracing Bitcoin and the values of decentralization, Trump could poach pro-crypto Democrats and independents who would otherwise vote for Biden. It could play a role for the 1.9 million people in swing states like New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania for whom cryptocurrencies are a major concern. In 2020, Trump lost three of these four states by very narrow margins. But he can win it back by catering to voters' crypto needs.
Just one comment: Trump has previously expressed doubts about digital assets. In an interview on Fox Business in June 2021, Trump said: “Bitcoin, it looks like a scam. I don't like it because it's another currency competing with the dollar.”
Is Trump set in his ways? Is he destined to oppose Bitcoin forever? Or could the allure of a new voting coalition tempt the Orange Man to embrace the Orange Currency?
Although Trump has taken a hard line against cryptocurrencies in the past, there is growing evidence that his stance has softened significantly in the past two years. In December 2022, for example, he launched a line of NFT trading cards to garner support from his base. To build on this success, he launched a new collection of “Mugshot” NFTs last month. This new surge in NFTs came on the heels of a report that showed Trump at one point owned $2.8 million worth of cryptocurrencies in an Ethereum wallet, according to financial disclosure documents.
Trump has dipped his toes into the cryptocurrency waters by experimenting with NFTs. Could he shoot for Bitcoin next? Doing so could change not only his financial portfolio but the electoral map in 2024.
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