Read the latest updates on Hurricane Lee on Saturday:Will Hurricane Lee turn and miss the East Coast?. Previous coverage below:
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Hurricane Lee weakened some Saturday, but the Atlantic storm is expected to strengthen again. Meteorologists are still assessing risks on the ground, including the East Coast of the United States.
Hundreds of miles from land, the storm — once a Category 5 hurricane — was a Category 3 storm Saturday morning with winds of 115 mph.
“Regardless of the details, Lee will likely continue to be a dangerous hurricane during the entire forecast period,” a discussion by the National Hurricane Center said on Saturday.
The National Hurricane Center's five-day forecast indicates that Lee will continue to move west-northwest on a track that takes him somewhere northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands and east of the Bahamas on Tuesday, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Friday.
High waves and life-threatening rip currents are expected to affect islands in the northeastern Caribbean Sea over the weekend.
Most computer models used by the Hurricane Center agree that Lee will turn northward, sparing Florida a possible hurricane landfall.
“There's absolutely no indication in front of us that this is going to be a major threat to Florida, other than that it's going to be a major downstream hazard,” Jimmy Romm, the center's deputy director, told USA TODAY on Friday.
“Right now, other than the risk of a rip current, which is severe, there is no reason for people on the East Coast to be afraid,” Romm said. “We need them to be informed and aware and check back for details, but at the moment there is no reason other than the extreme currents that are making people afraid.”
High waves, rip currents and hazardous conditions are expected along the East Coast of the United States starting Sunday evening. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a large area of very large waves will reach the U.S. East Coast, “resulting in dangerous surf, disrupting current conditions, and certainly some beach erosion,” Brennan said.
As for direct impacts to the north, along the northeastern coasts of the United States or Canada, there are still large margins of error in distant forecasts, the center said.
“Right now, every computer model shows that there is a significant reduction in the jet stream over the United States, which seems very likely,” said David Nolan, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School and the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Marine Research. Atmospheric studies. “If this shooting came out, what would happen is that Lee would basically be pulled over.”
It's still too early to know impacts on the U.S. East Coast and Canada by late next week with certainty, Nolan said, echoing guidance from the Hurricane Center's forecast discussions.
Where is Hurricane Lee?
At 5 a.m. Saturday, Lee was 385 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 12 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.
FEMA is preparing for potential impacts from Lee
President Joe Biden on Thursday received the latest hurricane track and details of the preparations being made by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. About 4.5 million meals and nearly 8.9 million liters of water are available in Puerto Rico, and about 250,000 more meals and more than 600,000 liters of water are available in the U.S. Virgin Islands, the agency said Friday.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said it had also deployed rapid response teams to both US territories as a precaution.
Hurricane Center forecast track for Lee
The official forecast track cone shows the most likely path of the storm's center. It does not show the full width of the storm or its potential impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Expect hazardous beach conditions
Conditions would be dangerous on the beach no matter how far Lee was from shore, Brennan said. Even if it is “offshore and very far from the East Coast of the United States,” a hurricane could produce dangerous waves, impact current conditions and lead to beach erosion, “even when it's a very nice day to be at the beach,” he said.
Rip currents and rough waves could pose a “life threat” to people who venture into the water, Allison Hoeg, AccuWeather's chief meteorologist, said Friday.
Deaths among people surfing during hurricanes have risen in recent years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“So always pay attention to the latest beach forecast, and pay attention to any warning flags flying or advice given by lifeguards,” Brennan said.
Why did he intensify me so quickly?
“This is one of Most impressive rapid condensation rings “I've seen it before in the Atlantic,” meteorologist Levi Cowan, founder of Tropicaltidbits.com, wrote Thursday on X, previously Twitter. Hurricane Lee went from eyeless in the morning to Category 5 by the evening. “It's absolutely incredible,” Cowan said.
Water temperatures in the transatlantic region are much warmer than normal, averaging about 85 degrees, the hurricane center said.
“But it's not just about sea surface temperatures,” said Mark Bourassa, a professor of meteorology at Florida State University. “I was in a place where nothing else would interfere with sea surface temperatures warming to the point that would be supported by sea surface temperatures.”
Storms intensify when there is nothing else to spoil them, Bourassa said. “Li is not close to the ground, there is no dry air coming, and there are no strong winds in the air.”
How does Lee compare to other hurricanes?
Despite strengthening from Category 1 to Category 5 within 24 hours on Thursday, Lee is not the fastest storm to strengthen in the Atlantic Ocean. In October 2005, Wilma developed from a tropical storm into a Category 5 hurricane within 24 hours, according to the Hurricane Center's post-storm report.
Five more Atlantic storms intensified by 80 mph or more in 24 hours, Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, posted on X Thursday night. They are: Wilma (2005), Felix (2007), Ike (2008), Matthew (2016), Maria (2017), and Etta (2020).
Klotzbach also shared a list of other hurricanes that had winds equal to or greater than 180 mph. They are: Allen (1980), Gilbert (1988), Mitch (1998), Rita (2005), Wilma (2005), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019).
What spaghetti model plots show
Model plot illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all of them are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses the four or five top-performing models to help make its forecasts.
Other storms the hurricane center is monitoring:
Margot — the 13th named storm of the season — formed in the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. About 890 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, it is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday as it moves northward in the Atlantic Ocean away from land.
young man – In the Pacific Ocean, after intensifying this week, Hurricane Jova is expected to move into cooler waters and dissipate by early next week.
How do hurricanes form?An inside look at the birth and power of ferocious storms
Contributing: The Associated Press
