Mauer's arrival in the hall — especially on the first ballot — may have come as a surprise to some. It could also be seen as a sign of a shift in the way BBWAA voters evaluate players. In some ways, Mauer was a fairly conventional candidate, with a good reputation and an offensive profile highlighted by his ability to hit for average (as evidenced by his three AL batting titles).
In other ways, he was closer to a New School candidate. Voters had to look beyond his lack of gaudy counting stats (2,123 hits, only 143 at-bats), a relatively short career (15 seasons) and the fact that injuries forced him to transition from elite catcher to first baseman/DH slightly above Average for the last five of those seasons. Then there's the fact that hunters usually have a hard time voting overall.
It can be risky to try to draw blanket conclusions based on the example of any Hall candidate, as each player is unique. However, it is fair to wonder whether there are future candidates who could reasonably look back on Mauer's first election and feel better about their chances.
First, let's establish some criteria within which we can work. Here are some of the key qualities Mauer brings to the table:
^ A term used to describe leading the AL or NL in a statistical category in a given season (represented in bold text on the Baseball Reference page for that player).
Now, here's a look at some future Hall nominees who fit that criteria well enough to benefit from some of the same superlatives that elevated Mauer, even if that's far from an exact science.
Soon on the ballot
Posey is one of the top two catchers to appear on the BBWAA ballot over the next five cycles. The other is Yadier Molina (2028), who shares some similarities with Mauer but is actually a very different type of candidate – one based on defense and longevity.
Posey is a much closer match. He also had an impressive peak (10th-best seven-year total by a player) and had a stretch (2012-2017) as clearly the best player in the game from a statistical perspective. He also won an MVP award (as well as Rookie of the Year) and a batting title and spent his entire career with one team, the Giants.
On the one hand, Posey is much lower than Mauer in terms of counting statistics (12 seasons, exactly 1,500 hits). On the other hand, he has one shiny factor in his favor that Mauer doesn't: World Series rings (three of them, actually). Given all that, it's hard to imagine that Posey won't join Mauer in Cooperstown before long.
While Pedroia has some similarities to Mauer, he also makes an interesting comparison to another first-time candidate from 2024: Chase Utley. The two second basemen had staggered peaks, were key players in World Series winners and beloved by their respective fan bases, in part because of their intense, tough styles (Pedroia in Boston, Utley in Philadelphia).
In fact, Utley does better than Pedroia in terms of peak and career WAR, but Pedroia has the advantage in other areas. He won a Rookie of the Year Award, an MVP Award, and four Gold Gloves. Although he did not record a batting title, he led the AL in runs, hits, and doubles in 2008. He also won several World Series.
The question next year will be whether voters will place Pedroia more with fellow incumbent Utley (who received just 28.8% of the vote) or with Mauer — another individual franchise icon whose brilliant career was unfortunately curtailed by injuries in his early 30s. His age.
It's difficult to compare position players to starting pitchers, whose chances at the Hall have diminished in recent years, along with their workloads. But if you look beyond that, there are a lot of similarities here.
King Felix spent all 15 of his seasons with one team, just like Mauer (and was well-liked in Seattle, for that reason.) and won one of MLB's most prestigious awards (AL Cy Young, in 2010). He has led the AL in wins once and ERA twice. Over the course of nine years (2007-2015), only Clayton Kershaw could achieve more WAR. However, postseason glory was elusive, as Hernandez was unable to make the playoffs at all.
The problem for Hernandez is that those nine seasons account for almost all of his career value, yet his WAR peak is far lower than a number of his contemporaries, including Johan Santana. King's best hope is probably that he can stay on the ballot long enough to take advantage of changing attitudes toward pitcher evaluation.
It's actually unclear if Votto will add to his resume in 2024, as he remains an unsigned free agent at present, despite indicating a desire to continue his professional career. If Votto continues, it may not be with the Reds, which would remove his status as a franchise, even though he has become one of the greatest players in that franchise's long history. However, in many other respects, Votto is good company for Mauer (not to mention his running mate, Hilton).
In terms of peak seven-season WAR, Votto ranks ninth among first basemen, behind seven Hall of Famers and Albert Pujols. Behind him are several other Hall of Famers, as well as Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Cabera. Over the course of 10 years (2009-18), Votto ranked third in WAR among all position players, behind only Mike Trout and Robinson Cano. Votto also received MVP honors and black ink — albeit mostly in less traditionally appreciated categories (five times he leads the NL in walks, seven times in OBP).
Aside from Ken Griffey Jr., quarterbacks haven't had an easy time on the Hall ballot lately. Andrew Jones is headed to his eighth ballot in the 2025 cycle, while Jim Edmunds, Kenny Lofton and Bernie Williams are all out quickly. (Carlos Beltran is trending higher as he enters his third ballot despite being hampered by his ties to the Astros' sign-stealing scheme.)
It's not at all clear whether McCutcheon will be much better, especially given his peak seven-year run ranks slightly above Williams and behind Lofton and Edmunds. However, the ballot is less crowded than it was when these three fell, and voters are moving toward being more open. Cutch also earned MVP honors, was one of the top three players in WAR for five years (2011-15), while leading the NL in hits, OBP, OPS and WAR once each while becoming a Pirates legend. However, that peak was perhaps a little too short when compared to others on this list, as McCutchen never had another WAR season outside of those incredible five years.
Even more so than Hernandez, deGrom will be a tough test of how elite the elite can outperform anything else, especially as a pitcher. Maybe deGrom will put together a few more ace-level seasons in Texas once he recovers from Tommy John surgery last year, but for now, his resume relies heavily on a short window of all-time greatness with the Mets. That included two Cy Young Awards (plus Rookie of the Year), an ERA title and two strikeout titles, as well as the second best in MLB WAR from 2015 to 2021. For a short time, deGrom was as dominant as any pitcher ever, but even with the way As situations change, this may not be enough.
These last two names are more speculative than the two mentioned above. And in Altuve's case, he could make himself a contender — at least statistically — with a few more solid years. (It's worth noting that he's been as good as ever at the plate since 2022.) The future is hardly guaranteed for any ballplayer approaching his 34th birthday, and for now at least, Pedroia, Mauer and Utley all rank among Altuve's outfielders. Most similar at-bats per baseball reference. Even if Altuve flops from this point forward, he will go down as an all-time great Astros player, with accolades including an MVP award, three batting titles and two World Series rings. Over the past 10 seasons, he has 17 more WARs than any other second baseman.
Yes, this is premature. After all, Judge hasn't even reached the ten-season threshold required for Hall eligibility. At the same time, he is entering his age-32 season, and health will be a major question for a player of his size for the duration of the nine-year contract he signed with the Yankees a season ago. Judge took home Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player awards — the latter for a 2022 campaign that will stick in voters' minds for his historic home run. He's already hit two home runs, among his notable black ink, and even after just seven full MLB seasons (one of which was a pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign), his seven-year peak WAR is already at the Hall of Fame's average and above that of his own. Tony Gwynn and Vladimir Guerrero. The point is: Even if the judge's best judgment is already behind him — and he may not be — he will present a compelling case.
