With the start of spring training right around the corner, it's time to start talking about Blake Snell's free agency. The current National League Cy Young winner remains unsigned and is undoubtedly the best player still available. As the best player on the market, Snell should be ready for a big payday. But will it be worth it?
Is Blake Snell worth a big contract?
Before the season, experts expected Snell's contract to be worth at least $200 million over at least six or seven years. That still seems like a fair goal, especially after Aaron Nola received a seven-year, $172 million deal to stay with the Phillies. Plus, now that he's one of seven pitchers to win the Cy Young in both leagues, Snell will certainly sign a lucrative deal.
However, will Snell be able to live up to the contract he will receive or will he end up signing one of the worst contracts in MLB history?
Numbers
As a Cy Young winner, all the numbers point to Snell being at the top of his game right now. He made 32 starts for the Padres in 2023, going 14-9 with a 2.25 ERA. The only time Snell posted more impressive numbers was in 2018 when he won his first Cy Young title. But what about the years he didn't play at the Cy Young level?
If you take away the two Cy Young campaigns and the shortened 2020 season, Snell has averaged 24.5 starts per season, so he has had some injuries along the way. The lefty had elbow and shoulder issues in Tampa and has missed time in recent years with oblique injuries. He also never won more than eight games in any of those seasons and has reached an ERA over 4.00 three times. Keep in mind that Snell only has one all-star pick on his resume.
The other number worth noting is his FIP of 3.38 in 2023. That's a full point higher than his ERA, indicating that he had a lot of good luck last season and benefited from some excellent defense behind him. With that kind of discrepancy between ERA and FIP, Snell may be slated for a regression in 2024, which would obviously come right after signing a long-term deal.
Not just a number
Another thing to keep in mind is that Snell is 31 years old, which is not just a number with pitchers. A seven-year deal will see Snell pitch and earn a big salary until he turns 37. A Cy Young caliber season and avoiding further injuries as he deepens into his 30s?
These are the questions teams pursuing Snell should ask themselves before signing him. It's possible — if not likely — that Snell won't have as good a season as he has in 2023. Why pay a pitcher like a Cy Young winner if there's a good chance he'll never perform at that level again?
The remaining suitors
Concerns about his age, injuries and high salary demands may be the reason Snell's list of suitors has dwindled. He was one of the SF Giants' offseason targets early in the season, but they traded for Robbie Ray instead. The Dodgers are also likely off the board after adding several pitchers already this offseason. Of course, Yankees free agency rumors continue to point to Snell as New York's top target.
However, other than the Yankees, few teams interested in Snell — notably the Padres, Angels, Cubs and others — would be able to afford the type of contract Snell was expected to receive before the season. In a way, this might be a fitting way to end Snell's free agency. If he gets a contract worth around $200 million over seven years, that would likely be a lot for the pitcher Snell will likely be in the coming years, and he's unlikely to be anywhere near the pitcher he was in the past.
