Women will be favored because Trump has a big problem among female voters. Elise Stefanik, No. 4 in House GOP leadership, has shown exceptional loyalty to Trump, as have Arizona's Carrie Lake (who is now running for the Senate) and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem. And none of them appear capable of doing what Vice President Mike Pence did on January 6, 2021: reject President Trump's request to overturn the election. Trump knows it, and they know it.
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Other candidates include Tim Scott, the black senator from South Carolina. A televised Tim Scott-Kamala Harris vice presidential debate would set a ratings record. Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, whom Trump enthusiastically supported, was a staunch Trump supporter on Capitol Hill.
But even as Trump plays King Kong in this campaign, a major security flaw has been exposed. Yes, Trump crushed the field. But in the first competitive primary, while Trump received more than 50% of the vote, there were still more than 40% who did not vote for him. Many DeSantis and Haley voters will join the line. But expert analysts in the party show that 10% of Republicans are not Trump supporters at all. Another 30% voted twice for Trump, in 2016 and 2020, but are open this year, primarily on the question of Trump's fitness for office.
If Biden can attract a measurable margin of disaffected Republican voters in key swing states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia – this could offset the decline in support he faces from key Democratic groups, especially young voters. Abortion rights will also be a strong driver of Republican votes for Biden and Democrats.
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Trump has never broken 50 percent approval rating during his presidency or in the years since. He was a minority president. It is the main divider. This year, in courtrooms across the country, he is the lead defendant. With the reality of Trump being the nominee and being poised to return to the White House for a long time waning — as it is at this very moment — Biden needs every advantage at his disposal.
Bruce Wolpe is a Senior Fellow at the Center for US Studies at the University of Sydney. He served on the staff of Democrats in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former Prime Minister Julia Gillard.
