- Temperatures are expected to be milder than average across the United States as Christmas approaches.
- This forecast represents a 180-degree reversal from the frigid conditions we experienced at the same time last year.
- The air source dominating the United States this year is the temperate Pacific instead of the Arctic in late December 2022.
Temperatures leading up to Christmas this year are expected to be the opposite of the same period last year when most of the United States went into a deep freeze.
Projections show that a moderate temperature pattern could dominate the United States: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center said. Temperatures are likely to be above average in most of the lower 48 regions from Dec. 21-27 in its forecast released Wednesday. The mild temperature pattern could reduce the chance of a white Christmas this year in parts of the country.
(More: Historical opportunities for white christmas)
Temperature forecast released on December 13 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center for December 21-27.
(NOAA)
Pacific air fuels the temperate pattern: When upper-level winds across the United States generally flow in a flat west-to-east fashion, they usually prevent any significant cold intrusions from rushing into the lower 48. That's what forecast model guidance shows as we head closer to Christmas, which means warmer air. Winds from the Pacific will dominate rather than any cold blasts from the Arctic region.
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Here's how this differs from a year ago: Last year, the sharp decline of the jet stream southward brought a historically cold polar air mass across much of the eastern two-thirds of the country as well as parts of the Rocky Mountains. You can see the significant dip in the jet stream from north to south last year around Christmas time in the image below.
The jet stream pattern that was in effect heading into Christmas 2022.
Here are some highlights from last year's Arctic air blast:
– Cheyenne, Wyoming, saw a drop in temperature 40 degrees cold in 30 minutes on December 21st. This broke the city's record for the largest drop in temperature in an hour or less.
-Denver saw that The coldest air in a generation On December 22, when the temperature dropped to 24 degrees below zero, the coldest temperature the city had seen since December 22, 1990.
– Wichita, Kansas, was hers The coldest cold wind (negative 32 degrees) this century.
– Nashville State, Tennessee, declined Below zero for the first time in more than 26 years.
-Atlanta (Dec. 24) and New York City (Dec. 23 and 24) saw low temperatures dip into the single digits. It was Atlanta's first single-digit low since January 2014.
– Cold air, combined with heavy snow and strong winds, contributed to a deadly blizzard in Buffalo, New York, and partially froze Mobile Bay along the Alabama Gulf Coast.
Temperatures compared to their averages for the five days ending on December 25, 2022.
(NOAA)
El Niño signatures contribute to the milder pattern this December: Most parts of the country saw above-average temperatures at the beginning of December as a whole. The mildest areas are from the Great Lakes to the upper Midwest, the northern Plains and the northern Rocky Mountains, where the first 10 days of the month were 5 or more degrees above average, according to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
It's many of those same areas that tend to be warmer than average during winters with strong El Niños like the one we're experiencing now.
Chris Dolce He has been a senior meteorologist at Weather.com for over 10 years after starting his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.
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