If the winner in Iowa is upset in New Hampshire, there will be a heavy political cost. In 2008, Barack Obama surprised Hillary Clinton in Iowa. It showed that a black candidate could win in a white state in the Midwest – a compelling narrative for Obama. If Obama had won New Hampshire just five days later, he would have received the nomination that month. But Clinton showed some real emotion about why she was running and what she was fighting for.
She won New Hampshire, and it took Obama five more months of state fighting to secure victory. Although the prolonged battle was painful, it made Obama a stronger candidate for November, crushing McCain. In 2016, Clinton beat Bernie Sanders in Iowa. He won New Hampshire two weeks later, and it took months for her to finally win the nomination.
Nikki Haley will be a target of Donald Trump's campaign ahead of the New Hampshire primary.credit: Bloomberg
This is what Trump intends to avoid at all costs. The GOP crown will be his just one week from now if he can send Healey to New Hampshire. Trump seeks absolute dominance. Trump's playbook is clear: attack, degrade, and destroy.
Vivek Ramaswamy, a start-up high-tech entrepreneur, presented himself as a younger Trump who carried all the values of his hero. But Trump is demanding all the votes to consolidate his dominance. In the days leading up to Iowa, Trump turned on Ramaswamy in vicious terms, calling him a traitor to Trump and that “a vote for Vivek is a vote for the ‘other side’.”
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Healy is the one who can stay in New Hampshire. Next week will show that Trump will hit it with scorched earth. If you thought former Prime Minister Tony Abbott's attacks on Prime Minister Julia Gillard were the height of misogyny in politics, then you haven't seen anything yet. Trump, who knows where to kidnap a woman and where she bleeds, will use all his own experience in his attack on Haley.
Trump will have his sweetest revenge in South Carolina, where he prepares to humiliate Haley in her home state. As for DeSantis, there is currently no state, not even Florida, where he can best Trump.
Trump will continue his campaign in courtrooms across the country. From Iowa, he went to New York to face charges of defaming a woman he had sexually assaulted years ago.
Trump said he had made his decision about his vice president. Trump knows what he won't repeat: a vice president he can turn on at a critical juncture, as Mike Pence did when he helped save American democracy on January 6.
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Trump knows he must have a vice president who is completely subservient and will carry out his orders without hesitation or second guessing.
And Trump's vice president will know something, too: that the shortest path to the Oval Office for his pick (and likely a woman) is to be first in line to succeed a man who, if elected, would be older than President Joe Biden. At the end of his term.
In an election where enthusiasm is the most valuable commodity, Trump has shown that his base comes not just from the party, but from the party as well He is the Republican Party.
This is the challenge facing Biden: bringing his supporters through the Democratic coalition to power. If the Biden campaign fails to deliver, Trump is poised to take back the country.
Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the Center for the Study of the United States. He served on the staff of Democrats in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former Prime Minister Julia Gillard.
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