Temperature versus wind chill
Today we will have some of the coldest weather we have felt in months. We started with sunshine, but we also started with temperatures in the teens and twenties.
A strong cold front has finally arrived to the south. High pressure is also increasing from the west.
It will be difficult to warm up during the day. We will have plenty of sunshine. The air is very dry with dew points in the single digits.
There will be a light (but steady) westerly/northwesterly breeze. It will run at 8-12 mph. This will be a continuous stream of cool/dry air. While this would not be very strong. It will still have an effect on the “temperature you feel”. Temperatures will rise into the mid 30s this afternoon. However, wind chills will be in the teens this morning and 20s this afternoon.
Tonight we will have more cold air in place. Lows will drop into the 20s with a couple of teens inside. The weather will be mostly clear with light southwesterly winds. It'll be another night to slow down the drip of the faucets. Tomorrow we will start out cold again, but will warm up in the afternoon. High temperatures will rise into the upper 40s.
We will still be dry on the surface, but the humidity will increase above. Clouds will also increase. There won't be any precipitation during the day though. Humidity will continue to rise at all levels until Friday morning. At this point a low pressure area will also move in from the west. There will be scattered showers in Hampton Roads and some mixing. However, there may be some light snow to the north/northwest of the metro.
Despite the abundance of clouds, we should be able to warm up into the 40s during the afternoon. Maybe in the low 40s. However, it is likely in the 30s north/northwest of Hampton Roads. This may allow snow to fall in these areas for some time. I think the rain/snow line will move north a bit in the afternoon, but we'll see how far north it gets. Here's the future track on Friday afternoon.
Even if temperatures are cold enough for snow, surface temperatures may be just above freezing throughout most of the day (again…north and northwest). So the snow may melt for a long time. Rain likely to be mainly cold with a mix in the metros. We may end up with some flurries in the evening, but we will dry out during that time as the low moves offshore.
We can see some light accumulations in typical areas. The latest models focus on a line from Williamsburg to Gloucester to Melfa and point north.
The GFS model is compatible with Future Trak, but there was some light snow in the metro on a previous run.
It's still early days, and I'm sure the details will change. So check back for updates. We still have some time.
I'm sure we'll get another blast of cold air next weekend. High temperatures will only be in the 30s on both days. Both days look dry. Longer term, I see a significant warm-up across the US, and I wouldn't be surprised if we get into the 60s and maybe even 70s later next week.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler
