After a nor'easter barrels down the U.S. East Coast this weekend, an active weather pattern will bring another powerful storm to the eastern half of the United States and create a variety of severe weather conditions.
According to the FOX Prediction Center, snow, heavy rain, damaging winds and severe weather are expected as the storm moves from the central United States into the Great Lakes.
The storm has already begun to develop in the Rocky Mountains and will quickly intensify as it moves toward the Plains. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the storm will peak and bring impactful weather from the southeast to the northeast.
“We talked about this at the end of 2023,” FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “We've had so much discussion here on FOX Weather that we're changing the pattern. Well, welcome to changing your pattern. This is to verify that forecast.”
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The probability of snowfall is high, and amounts are uncertain
Snow is likely to fall across the central Plains starting late Sunday. The Great Lakes region is expected to see heavy snowfall on Tuesday, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
“The current timing is likely to have some big impacts on places like Chicago, Kansas City and Detroit as we get into Tuesday of next week,” Merwin said. “So this is something worth seeing.”
A winter storm warning has already been issued for parts of more than a half-dozen states, from New Mexico to South Dakota.
The Northeast may also see a little extra snow on top of what falls over the weekend, but the bulk of it will fall in northern parts of New Hampshire and Maine.
The location and extent of the snowfall remains uncertain, and will become clearer as the event approaches.
“This area also had a poor winter last year and hasn't really seen a lot of winter weather this year,” Merwin added.
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Heavy rainfall can lead to flooding
Several inches of rain could fall from the southeast to the northeast as southerly winds keep these areas too warm to allow snow, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
Areas that received the most snow from this weekend's storm will be of particular concern. Additional heavy rain falling on top of rapidly melting snow could cause flooding.
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Of particular concern for forecasters is the New York tri-state area, where there are already indications of potential flooding during the mid-week time frame.
Forecast models indicate that showers and thunderstorms could produce hourly rainfall rates of at least half an inch, leading to flash flooding.
A flood watch will likely be required for counties in the highlighted area next week.
This is the first time NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has issued a moderate danger zone five days before the event since its flood alert product became operational in 2023.
The weather is likely to be bad in the south
Impressively strong wind shear caused by strong, twisting winds aloft should easily support severe thunderstorms near the Gulf Coast on Monday, the FOX Forecast Center said.
There is still some uncertainty about how quickly rich, low-lying moisture will return north from the Gulf of Mexico to parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as how far north it will travel. More moisture equals a greater chance of severe weather. Flash flood forecast for the Northeast TUE.png
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On Monday, a threat level of 2 out of 5 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center for severe weather had already been issued over portions of coastal East Texas., Including Houston, to Louisiana, southern Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
“Early indications from the Storm Prediction Center always deserve a lot of respect because they are a good indicator of where the forecast is headed,” Merwin said.
Given the forecast for very strong wind shear, it seems possible that supercells and lines of storms capable of producing tornadoes and damaging winds exist.
This serious threat could continue east on Tuesday in parts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, the Fox Forecast Center said.
Strong winds possible
The size and low pressure of the storm will develop a large wind field capable of producing damaging gusts from the Plains to the East Coast. Winds may be stronger across the Northeast, blowing from the south on Tuesday.
While details have not yet been determined, the winds could be strong enough to cause major power outages on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Fox Forecast Center said.
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