The El Niño phenomenon is expected to weaken throughout 2024
Climate experts are now focusing on when El Niño could weaken, leading to climate changes around the world.
The new year has begun, and if climate science tells us anything about the future, it's that 2024 will be full of extreme weather from coast to coast and around the world.
Every year, the United States experiences droughts, floods, severe weather conditions, hurricanes, droughts, fires, and heat waves.
Sometimes, these events can reach extreme levels and turn into disasters worth billions of dollars. In 2023, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported an unprecedented number of these extreme weather events – 28 in total, resulting in an estimated $100 billion in revenue.
The FOX Forecast Center will track all events to help protect you and your family. Here's a preview of weather events to watch out for in 2024.
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1) Will winter be a season to remember or not to attend?
Much of the first half of the meteorological winter was filled with record temperatures and historic snowfall deficits across the country. The lack of any winter is reminiscent of just last year when many communities east of the Mississippi River reported their snowiest season on record.
The winter of 2022-2023 was controlled by a La Niña weather pattern, which ended in March. The influence of this winter is dominated by the El Niño phenomenon, which is on the opposite spectrum to the La Niña phenomenon.
Typically, strong El Niño patterns produce warm winters in the United States, with little snowfall in the northern tier of the country.
A weak El Niño phenomenon, coupled with fluctuating pressure patterns, could make the country vulnerable to extreme weather events.
For now, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) believe that when February is over, the country will be able to look back at the winter and say, “That wasn't as bad as it could have been.”
But with snow storms on the horizon, no one can guess how severe the winter will end up being.
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When can you expect the last snowfall of the season?
2) How active is the spring severe weather season?
A typical year produces about 1,300 tornadoes, 7,500 hail reports and 14,000 damaging wind gusts.
Both 2022 and 2023 produced about the average amount of tornadoes, but hail and damaging winds were more active than usual.
As El Niño continues to dominate weather patterns, forecasters expect numbers to trend lower in 2024 compared to average seasons.
Meteorologists believe that atmospheric components are usually not as favorable during a neutral event compared to a La Niña period but are more active than under an El Niño system.
Research by numerous private, government, and educational entities has found that neutral ENSO conditions tend to produce tornado and hail events that are consistent with average or slightly below average historical records.
Meteorological spring, which consists of the months of March, April, and May, is usually the busiest period for severe weather as the jet stream allows a lot of warm moisture to flow north and helps with the instability needed for thunderstorms.
Hail and tornado activity versus atmospheric state (Willis Rey/Columbia University/Fox Weather)
Why does Tornado Alley turn east?
3) When will El Niño end?
The climate pattern, which has dominated global weather since June, appears to be on the verge of rapid deterioration and is expected to end in 2024.
When sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean drop to 0.5°C (0.9°F) or lower, there will be an El Niño-Southern Oscillation neutral event.
Many climate models show the average water temperature in critical areas of the Pacific Ocean falling below the required threshold during the spring, which could eventually lead to a change in weather patterns.
El Nino computer model forecast (Columbia Climate School, Columbia University/FOX Weather)
But when the pattern changes it will be crucial in helping determine when the country could see a change in weather.
A pattern that reverses during late spring or summer may miss the core of the severe weather season but catch up with hurricane season to show its effects. A pattern change in September or later may not affect the 2024 hurricane season, but will be in effect next winter.
El Niño appears to be on the verge of a rapid collapse
4) Will North America's fire season lead to smoke-filled skies?
No year comes close to the number of acres destroyed across Canada and the United States than 2023 when wildfires scorched more than 48 million acres.
Both countries experience large wildfires every year, and due to the position of the jet stream, smoke is transported either across the country or into the country, depending on the season.
Unfortunately, many areas that experienced major fires in central and western Canada in 2023 did not receive useful rain, meaning the areas are still experiencing significant drought.
If ground moisture does not improve, this puts the country at risk of wildfires in 2024.
Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasts for continued snowfall deficits with above-average temperatures through most of 2024.
North American Drought Monitor (National Drought Mitigation Center/FOX Weather)
Hot summer nights reduce the chances of getting cold during the day
5) Is there another scorching summer in the future?
Meteorologists in both Europe and the United States believe 2024 will be the hottest year on record, and the months of June, July and August will play an important role in this year's global temperature trend.
The previous summer in the United States was the 15th warmest summer on record, with the hottest summer occurring in 2021.
To become the record leader, this season's average anomaly must be greater than 2.60 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.
Both long-term climate models and the state of ENSO suggest that the summer of 2024 will be warmer than usual, but the jury is still out on whether the year could be on track to replace 2021's record.
Animation of temperature anomaly forecasts (Tropicaltidbits.com / FOX Weather)
The heat is likely to lead to many heatwaves and diseases associated with such extreme events.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that more than 700 heat-related deaths occur on average each year in the United States.
2023 hurricane season: Our least impactful in almost a decade
6) Will it be another active hurricane season?
The 2023 hurricane season was the least affecting the Southeast in about a decade, but the Atlantic basin produced 20 named storms.
Unlike 2023, when tropical cyclones had to compete with a growing El Niño, it looks like the 2024 season will have to deal with weather conditions that will be the opposite, with a collapsing El Niño.
Nearly every climate model projects a rapid El Niño event as the 2024 hurricane season approaches, which could significantly impact tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin.
Many seasons following El Niño have been busy, with above-average production of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.
The combination of improving atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic and warming water temperatures throughout the basin calls for a basin that will once again weather 14 typical storms and seven hurricanes.
Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly (NOAA)
2023 ends as the warmest year on record
7) Can 2024 beat 2023's record global warmth?
After the end of the twelfth month, scientists will be able to know whether the year 2024 will exceed the record temperatures witnessed in 2023.
Britain's national weather service, the Met Office, expects global temperatures for 2024 to end between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above average.
If long-term projections are accurate, it could exceed the 2023 record, which currently stands at around 1.48 degrees Celsius, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Climate experts have long warned that if global temperature anomalies significantly exceed 1.5°C, irreversible damage could be done to the planet.
“The extreme events we have observed over the past few months provide dramatic testimony to how far we are now from the climate in which our civilization evolved. This has serious consequences for the Paris Agreement and all human endeavours. If we want to manage our climate,” Carlo Bontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said in a statement. Statement: “For the risk portfolio to succeed, we need to urgently decarbonize our economy while using climate data and knowledge to prepare for the future.”
Surface air temperature anomalies for 2023 (C3S/ECMWF / Weather Fox)
