Now, Beijing must formulate a response.
For Beijing, Lai's victory is a loss that deepens anxiety about its ability to bring Taiwan under its control, a long-sought goal of the ruling Communist Party and a key part of Chinese leader Xi Jinping's legacy. The result gives Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which Beijing refuses to deal with, an unprecedented third term.
“Lai’s victory would mean Xi would lose face,” said Chen Fangyu, an assistant professor of political science at Soochow University in Taipei. “This means that his Taiwan policy has failed. Now he has to do something to show off his muscles.
In the coming months, Beijing is expected to intensify its efforts to intimidate Taiwan using familiar coercive tactics including military harassment and economic pressure.
But an actual conflict or invasion is unlikely — at least for now — officials and analysts in Taiwan and the United States say. China's immediate actions will be tempered by a desire to maintain recently stable relations with Washington.
A US delegation including former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and former Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg is scheduled to arrive in Taipei on Sunday, according to the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto US embassy here.
China's initial response to Lai's win was predictable: officials used the usual tough language on Sunday, and Beijing's embassies in countries that had congratulated Lai condemned them for “interference in China's internal affairs.” “No matter how the situation in Taiwan changes, the basic fact that Taiwan is part of China will not change,” the Chinese embassy in London wrote.
The island's Ministry of Defense said on Sunday morning that four military ships had been spotted near Taiwan, while a Chinese balloon was lifted off at high altitude off the northwest coast near the capital.
Over the past eight years, since the Democratic Progressive Party took power, Beijing has severed all official ties with President Tsai Ing-wen and is even less likely to engage with Lai, who has previously called for full independence.
Lai has softened his stance while serving as Tsai's vice president and has pledged to continue her policy of maintaining the fragile status quo and avoiding war in the Taiwan Strait. He has said several times that he will deal with Beijing “as an equal.”
But Beijing has already rejected the Democratic Progressive Party's position that Taiwan is a sovereign state under its official name, the Republic of China, and that there is no need to formalize independence and risk conflict.
Taiwanese voters, both those who supported Lai and those who chose two opposition candidates, are bracing for a difficult four years.
“I expect the Chinese to intensify their pressure on Taiwan, but I am not afraid of them,” said Akira Chiu, 60, who works in tourism and voted for Lai. “We are ready to protect our country at any time.”
The DPP will bring Taiwan closer to war with China, said Hsieh-Hsien-jung, a 26-year-old office worker in Taipei who voted for the main opposition party, the Kuomintang, which supports closer ties with China.
“I am very concerned about the future of Taiwan because the Democratic Progressive Party has a history of confronting China. What if China runs out of patience in the next four years and declares war? It is not impossible,” she said.
Analysts say Beijing is unlikely to take radical action before Lai's inauguration on May 20, the next major indicator that will determine how his election will affect the tense relationship between Taiwan, China and the United States.
Before that, Beijing will try to strike a balance between intimidating Taipei and urging Washington to rein in Lai without provoking a backlash that pushes the Taiwanese public further away.
“China will continue its high military pressure to deter Lai from ‘crossing the red line’ during his inauguration speech,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington.
Few expected the level of force demonstrated after then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei in 2022, when the Chinese military fired nearly a dozen missiles during four days of military exercises surrounding Taiwan. But Beijing can use other methods.
Since December, China has sent more than 31 high-altitude balloons — similar to the one it dropped over the United States last year — into Taiwan's airspace, representing a new form of “gray zone” tactics aimed at intimidating and using military resources. Taiwanese.
Before the election, Beijing removed preferential tariffs on 12 types of chemicals imported from Taiwan, as part of a trade agreement in place over the past decade, and threatened to halt more.
“The cumulative effect of these steps is that Lai will become less, not more, flexible about his cross-Strait positions,” said Rick Waters, managing director of the Eurasia Group’s China practice and a former senior China policy official at the State Department.
Beijing will be able to use this pressure to exploit some of Lai's weaknesses. Chinese state media on Sunday stressed how Lai won the presidency with only 40 percent of the vote and his party lost its majority in the Legislative Council.
He added: “The election results prove that [DPP] “It does not represent mainstream public opinion on the island,” China's Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement late Saturday.
Although Lai's election was a setback for China, Beijing can console itself with the knowledge that the new government is weaker than the outgoing one, said Minxin Pei, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College. The main opposition party, the Kuomintang, now enjoys a slight lead in the legislature.
“So, except for losing face, China is in a slightly better position than before,” Pei said.
However, Beijing appears reluctant to erase the gains made when Xi and President Biden met in November, which helped reopen key channels of communication, including between the two militaries.
For this reason, China will likely hold off fire, said Bonnie Glaser, executive director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund.
“I think the Chinese will hold back on some of the bigger things — perhaps flying a fighter jet within Taiwan’s territorial airspace — because they need to be able to get some things to bring up later and because they don’t want to upset China.” She said that the fragile stability in US-China relations.
The Biden administration stressed in the run-up to the election that it does not support Taiwan independence and that it does not take a position on “the final resolution of cross-Strait disputes, provided that they are resolved peacefully.”
This is aimed at reassuring Beijing, said Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst at the International Crisis Group. “It is a clear attempt by both sides to maintain the momentum generated by the Xi-Biden meeting.”
Even if high-level political dialogue between Beijing and the incoming Lai administration is not possible, there is room for calming tensions. According to Hsiao, signaling through public statements or communicating through informal back channels would help.
“This period of time that we are going through is really important. It really depends on what is communicated between the three parties. It is an opportunity to set expectations,” he said, referring to Beijing, Taipei and Washington.
In Taipei, some residents see no point in trying to reach an understanding with Beijing. “If China wants to start a war, no matter what Taiwan does or which party is in power, it won't be able to stop it,” said Dora Zhang, a 27-year-old translator who recently participated in a training program. Training course in civil defense. “We all know that the provocative side has always been China, not Taiwan.”
Ellen Nakashima in Washington, Lyric Lee, Vic Chiang and Bi-Lin Wu in Taipei contributed to this report..
