The Dolphins were favored to win the AFC East just two weeks into the season, but they couldn't find a way to beat the Ravens or Bills to clinch second place in the conference.
Failing to do so has now put Miami at a disadvantage entering the wild card game.
The Dolphins still have a chance to win their game against the Chiefs. Kansas City hasn't been its usual, explosive self on offense this season, so if Miami can land Tyreek Hill and De'Von Achane, the Dolphins could find a way to a key victory on the road.
However, it is not easy to win at Arrowhead Stadium thanks to the hostile atmosphere it creates for opposing teams. And it won't be easy for the Dolphins to put up a consistent performance in what looks to be the coldest weather contest in the league so far this season.
More NFL Playoffs: AFC vs. NFC Bracket | TV schedule | Power ratings
Currently, temperatures are expected to reach the single digits in Kansas City on Saturday, and temperatures may drop below zero before the game begins. This could spell trouble for the Dolphins due to Tua Tagovailoa's record and stats during the cold weather. Here's what to know about its suffering in low temperatures:
Tua Tagovailoa's record cold weather games
Tua Tagovailoa has an 0-6 record when the temperature reaches 45 degrees or below during one of his games. When the temperature is less than 40 degrees, it is 0-3 overall.
By comparison, Tagovailoa's record when the temperature is above 45 degrees is 32-13, good for a winning percentage of .727. That would rank eighth all-time among quarterbacks who play in at least 45 career games.
Tua Tagovailoa in cold weather stats
Of course, a quarterback's wins aren't always the best indicator of success, as a myriad of other factors can cause a team to lose any given week.
However, in Tagovailoa's case, he appears to have played a major role in Miami's inability to win in near-freezing conditions.
Tagovailoa has thrown multiple touchdown passes just twice in the seven games he's played in weather of 45 degrees or below. In just one of his games, he saw him throw more touchdowns than interceptions, as turnovers became an issue for Tua when the temperature dropped.
Here's a look at Tagovailoa's cold-weather stats from his six-game sample:
| statistics | the total |
| register | 0-6 |
| Companies. % | 56.9 |
| Passing yards | 1,519 |
| Passing TDs | 87 |
| Objections | 11 |
| Yards per attempt | 6.8 |
| Passerby classification | 67.62 |
These numbers paint a bleak picture of the Dolphins' chances of consistently scoring on the Chiefs. So, if Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City's offense show up on Saturday — something that hasn't happened as much as we're used to seeing this season — it could be difficult for Tagovailoa to do enough to keep his offense in the game.
Maybe Tua will be able to post his best performance ever in the cold weather in Kansas City. But with the match becoming the coldest of his career, it is difficult to trust him in this setting.
MORE: NFL playoff picks, 2024 AFC predictions, NFC brackets and Super Bowl 58
Dolphins vs Chiefs weather forecast
Tagovailoa's coldest game to date saw the temperature reach 35 degrees in Week 17 of the 2021 NFL season against the Bills.
Saturday's game in Kansas City looks to be a lot cooler. In fact, he may be among the coolest in NFL history.
According to Weather.com, the temperature will peak at just 10 degrees Fahrenheit in Kansas City on Saturday. There will be 10 to 15 mph winds throughout the day with an 11 percent chance of snow.
Once night falls, the temperature will drop to minus -6 degrees. Winds of at least 10 mph will persist while chances of snow rise to 60 percent. There's not expected to be a lot of snow — just “accumulations of less than an inch” — but that's another hurdle Miami must overcome in this contest.
The added problem for dolphins? The match is scheduled to take place at exactly eight o'clock in the evening, Eastern United States time, that is, about three hours after sunset. So, as the game goes on, it should get colder.
This will provide Tagovailoa and Co. with their toughest test yet — barring changes in forecasts.
NFL MOCK DRAFT 2024: Bears and Cardinals pick top WRs; Falcons and Vikings join QB race
The coldest games in NFL history
The 1967 Ice Bowl, played between the Packers and Cowboys, remains the coldest game in NFL history. The temperature was negative 13 when the two teams met on New Year's Eve, a game that Green Bay won 21-17.
The Chiefs-Dolphins game isn't expected to reach those levels, but it could make rare history as the fifth NFL contest ever to have a temperature below zero at kickoff. Here's a look at the previous four:
| date | a result | Temperature | location |
| December 31, 1967 | Packers 21, Cowboys 17 (Ice Bowl) | -13 degrees | Green Bay |
| January 10, 1982 | Bengals 27, Chargers 7 (freezer bowl) | -9 degrees | cincinnati |
| January 10, 2016 | Seahawks 10, Vikings 9 | -6 degrees | Minneapolis |
| January 20, 2008 | Giants 23, Packers 20 | -1 degree | Green Bay |
The Dolphins are hoping it doesn't reach that terrible number below zero. But no matter where the thermometer lands, it seems to give the Chiefs an advantage.
