Since then, Beijing has viewed Taiwan as part of its territory, although the island has remained defiantly autonomous, and its government has subsequently transformed from a nationalist military dictatorship to a vibrant, multi-party democracy. Taiwan still describes itself as the Republic of China, tied to the mainland from which its political elite fled but never abandoned. In the early years of the new century, talk spread of improved relations, and even the possibility of reunification. Motivated by deepening economic partnerships with China, Ma, a Kuomintang leader, was keen to mend ties with the mainland.
“What confronts us is the need to use understanding to get rid of conflict and aspire to prosperity,” Ma said at the summit. He added: “We must announce to the world that we want to strengthen cross-Strait relations.”
It was almost poetic. He said: “No force can separate us, because we are brothers who are still connected by our flesh even if our bones are broken.” “We are a family – blood is thicker than water. Today we sit together so that our tragic history does not repeat itself.”
Far from being a harbinger of things to come, this meeting seems like a snapshot of an era that has ended. In the years since, Xi has led China down a harsher authoritarian path, tightening his grip on power while suppressing political freedoms in semi-autonomous Hong Kong. His rhetoric toward Taiwan was far from likable — in his speeches, he described unification with the mainland as an inevitability that could be brought about by force of arms, if necessary.
At the same time, what a diminished character. His party has been out of power for the past eight years, marginalized by the rival Democratic Progressive Party, which is more hostile toward Beijing and fears falling under its umbrella. On the eve of Taiwan's major national election, Ma has reportedly been denied an invitation to the latest major campaign rally for KMT presidential candidate Hu Yu-ae, after sparking controversy with media appearances during which he opened the door to unification with China and suggested Taiwan should be called upon by voters. To trust Xi regarding cross-Strait relations.
Ma's comments were not welcome for the KMT presidential candidate, who is keen to dispel the widely held view that his party is China's favored faction in Taiwan. “The timing is very unfortunate for Ho's campaign,” Ma Chun-wei of Tamkang University in Taipei told Singapore's Straits Times. “If Ma had said what he said two months ago, people would have turned away from him by now. But saying these things just a few days before the election is likely to cost the party crucial average voters.”
Currently, Ho faces an uphill battle against Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Cheng-te, as well as an upstart third party challenge from Kuo Wen-jie of the centre-left Taiwan People's Party. Domestic concerns weigh heavily at the polls, but China remains the elephant in the room at a time when polls show a growing desire to break away from China among ordinary Taiwanese and a stronger embrace of a distinct Taiwanese identity.
Xi Jinping's coercive measures and gun threats have contributed to worsening the rift. “This election cannot change the basic fact that if Consolidation were a company, it would lose its market and be on the verge of bankruptcy,” wrote David Sachs of the Council on Foreign Relations. “Taiwan is committed to continuing to integrate itself into the West, a process that conflicts with China’s interests.”
Presidential candidates do not seek to destabilize the situation. They prefer to maintain the precise status quo that defines Taiwan's relationship with China and the world. But the candidates disagree on how to preserve Taiwan's status as a democracy that, while not recognized by the vast majority of the international community, remains completely free from Beijing.
“In particular, do deep cross-Strait economic ties and trade ties protect Taiwan from Chinese aggression, or make it more vulnerable?” he asked. My colleague Megan Tobin explained. “He and the KMT say maintaining cross-Strait trade links is key to fending off Beijing, while Lai and the DPP are convinced this is a slippery slope toward integration with China at every level.”
Chinese officials have described Lai as a “destroyer of peace” and have sent strong signals that another DPP term in power increases the potential for escalation. Meanwhile, lawmakers in Washington are rallying around Taiwan more than ever.
“Taiwan stands as a vibrant democracy and a shining beacon of freedom and the rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region,” Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.) said in an email. “The United States remains steadfast in support of the people of Taiwan and our shared commitment to democratic values and the rule of law,” he added.
However, Beijing sees this glowing rhetoric and growing US engagement with Taiwan as part of a larger threat.
“Any communist leader is unlikely to be generous with democracy in Taiwan, just as Taipei’s leadership is unlikely to trust Beijing to allow the island community to flourish as it does today,” Michael Schuman wrote in The Atlantic. The Communist Party has clearly demonstrated its intentions towards liberal societies. Thus, the more democracy entrenches itself in Taiwan, the more intractable the cross-Strait conflict becomes and the more urgently Washington must prepare for the worst.
