- The north and west will be milder than usual.
- El Niño may dominate weather patterns in the early part of the year.
- Some short periods of cold air are still expected.
The start of 2024 is expected to see mild conditions across much of the West and North, in contrast to the first three months of 2023, according to forecasts released Friday by The Weather Company, IBM Business, and Atmopheric G2.
If you're looking for cooler than average weather in the first quarter of 2024, you'll want to head to the Southeast.
The table will be set this winter by El Niño. This natural climate phenomenon tends to invert temperature patterns in the United States during the winter—milder winters in the north and colder-than-average winters in the south. You can see this pattern in the Q1 2024 overview below.
Now, let's put some caveats on the table. This year we will try to pump cold air into the warmth associated with El Niño.
We played “How will El Niño and ____ interact?” game for a while, and the next few months will be no different. During the first quarter of 2024, we will add the polar vortex and the potential for sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) to the picture.
(Winter moisturizers: Effects of the El Niño phenomenon during the winter | What is a polar vortex?)
An SWS event is a rapid rise in temperatures in the upper levels of the atmosphere that can help weaken and displace the polar vortex. It is a common warning included in long-range forecasts during the winter months because it carries significant hail risk.
Periods when the polar vortex weakens can produce short bursts of cold air that can last from a few days to a week. They should not dominate any month and there will be periods of cold air even if no such SSW events occur.
We'll also be watching for any blocking patterns that could temporarily constrict the jet stream and push cold air into the lower 48.
These colder risks are expected to be rare, so for now we will rely on El Niño.
(192 Hours: Boost your forecast even further with our hour-by-hour breakdown for the next eight days – only available on our website Premium Pro experience.)
Monthly highlights
-All three months will feature a well above average start to the year in the Northwest. This is something the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center agrees with.
Conditions will likely be cooler than average in the Southeast, but this may fade as we move toward spring.
-Most areas of the Southwest will see temperatures near average to slightly above average.
-The Northeast is likely to see a warm start, then flirt with average in February and March.
Plains will be above average in general.
Forecast maps
The Weather Company's primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment, and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
