Here are some market, economic and stock forecasts for 2024, including what may be an unexpected outcome for the US economy. First, as a reminder: “Markets and economics are not the same thing.”
1. Artificial Intelligence continues to capture the world's imagination: The largest companies are starting to use AI for real-world business purposes, including supply chain management, distribution improvements, and customer service interactions. Even some big-budget TV shows and movies can be produced using generative AI.
However, many small-cap AI stocks will get crushed and end the year down 90% or more, after failing to deliver on the over-the-top promises they made about how to use AI for growth. This group includes C3.ai AI,
Soundhound.ai Son,
junior Holding UPST,
Palantir Technologies PLTR, Inc.
2. The American economy falters: The US economy grows by about 2% in the first half of 2024, but it becomes bad by the end of the year, as it shrinks by 2% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
3. Technology moves – literally: At least five technology companies, each valued at more than $50 billion, have announced their intention to move their headquarters from California to Texas (as Tesla has done).
4. ChatGPT Drama: Sam Altman is kicked out of ChatGPT again and this time it's continuing. Microsoft is having trouble monetizing its ChatGPT partnership and its stock ends 2024 down 15% or more.
5. The Fed will not cut interest rates: Inflation will spend most of the year around 3% to 4% causing a lot of anxiety and ultimately fear in the broader markets. The same consensus that was very bearish in 2023 is now very bullish heading into 2024. The huge rally in tech in 2023 clearly highlights the bulls.
6. The Nasdaq is stable. Big companies lose: The Nasdaq 100 QQQ should be dull. The best-performing big tech stock will be Tesla TSLA,
Which will fall by 10% or more in the first half but will rise by 30-40% or more in the second half. The second best big tech stock will be Amazon.com AMZN,
by 20% for this year, followed by Alphabet Google,
Up to 15% or so.
Meanwhile, Apple stock AAPL,
You will lose 5% and the worst big tech stock will be a swing between Microsoft MSFT,
Broadcom Avgo,
Each will decline 15% or more in 2024. Small caps shine as the Russell 2000 IWM posts a 10% gain for the year while the S&P 500 SPX falls 5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) posts an annual loss. By 10%.
7. Bitcoin decline: bitcoin bitcoin dollar,
They fall by 15-20% before the “halving” event occurs in April, allowing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to rise to the event only to fall by 20-30% in the two or three months after the halving. Bitcoin settles at a high of $30,000 (bottoms around $36,000) this summer and ends 2024 at $42,733 or so. Ethereum ended the year down more than 20%. Recent cryptocurrencies like Bonk and Near end 2024 down 50% or more, while Dogecoin DOGEUSD,
Doubles (I call it the “Elon Effect” – I expected Elon Musk to ditch Dogecoin by now, but he’s still teasing it).
At the SEC, Chairman Gary Gensler is leaving the regulatory agency this summer and the SEC's next enforcement chief is coming in and already doing his job. The government is intensifying the prosecution of the founders of thousands of ridiculous, stupid and/or fraudulent cryptocurrency tokens that have been illegally staked on the public in the past five years. Coinbase global currency,
She gets her comeuppance as the company settles with the SEC for $7.2 billion, and Brian Armstrong has to give up his job as CEO.
is reading: The SEC says its X account was hacked, and it won't approve Bitcoin ETFs
8. Oil is not good: Oil will become one of the most volatile sectors of the market in 2024, spending the year trading between $55 and $90 per barrel and ending the year at $77.
9. Good as gold: gold GC00,
It becomes one of the less volatile sectors of the market in 2024, spending the year trading between $1,800 and $2,200 and ending the year at $2,047.
10. Electrical short circuits: general motors general motors,
ford Motor F,
And other legacy automakers are abandoning their buzzy EV strategies for now as buyers continue to avoid their bad software and terrible charging networks. GM is writing down more than $5 billion on its electric vehicle business and the stock ends the year at less than $20 a share.
Cody Willard is the founder of 10,000 Days Capital Management and manages 10,000 Days Fund, a hedge fund. At press time, Willard and/or the 10,000-day hedge fund were net longs META, GOOG, AMZN, TSLA, BITO and net shorts AI, UPST, PLTR, MSFT, QQQ, AVGO, IWM, SPY, DIA, COIN, and GM.
more: These big tech stocks are looking to capture the largest share of the AI market in 2024
Read also: Why stock market bulls should be careful about what they wish for with Fed rate cuts
