09 January Bitfinex Alpha | Bitcoin fluctuates ahead of ETF decision
In Bitfinex Alpha
With the opening of the new year 2024, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate strongly and is not slowing down! Despite a 57% increase in the last quarter of 2023 and 155% for the entire year, just 3 days into 2024, Bitcoin fell by 11% on January 3 – Bitcoin’s Genesis Block Day. A report that long-awaited Bitcoin ETFs may not be approved has led to a write-down of billions of dollars in unpaid interest, accompanied by a significant liquidation of both long and short positions. While such developments are always unfortunate, we believe this is also relatively healthy and entirely predictable.
On-chain metrics also tell an interesting story: December 27 – a normal day for Bitcoin prices – saw a significant increase in coin-killing days, demonstrating Bitcoin's strategic position. Long-term Bitcoin holders can expect important regulatory decisions in the long term. -The awaited Bitcoin exchange-traded fund.
As mentioned in the Bitfinex Alpha 2024 Forecast report, we believe the market remains vulnerable to declines, especially around $44-45,000, and remains highly sensitive to any regulatory developments.
The new year began with a complex but positive American economic picture. New data from the construction industry shows that spending is increasing year-on-year, indicating expanding demand and investment, despite production falling into contraction territory, not only in the United States but also in the eurozone and China.
In the minutes of the Fed's last meeting in December, policymakers made clear their view that interest rates appear to have peaked, with most officials expecting a shift to lower rates by the end of 2024.
However, one factor that could cloud this view is that the labor market, in December, significantly exceeded expectations for the number of new jobs added. Any evidence of further growth will once again raise concerns about inflation and officials will be wary of cutting interest rates too early.
On the news front, the new year has also started with some positive developments, starting with exchange-traded fund (ETF) preparations being made by some of the largest asset managers, all of whom are vying for position to launch a regulated spot Bitcoin ETF product.
In addition, Visa, one of the world's largest credit and debit card companies, also announced a Web3-based rewards system, allowing customers to accumulate digital assets, such as Tokenize tickets and accumulate reward points, which can be used in both virtual and real-life experiences. .
Troubled cryptocurrency lending platform Celsius has revealed that it is unbundling its Ethereum holdings to repay creditors. Meanwhile, the Bank of Spain announced a pilot program for wholesale central bank digital currencies, inviting the finance and technology sectors to participate, with the aim of exploring how these currencies can be used in remittances and payments of financial assets.
An exciting start to the new year. Happy trading everyone!
